Seattle Mariners (60-49) @ Baltimore Orioles (52-58), Line Orioles (-105 ml) Mariners (-105 ml), Total 10.5 Over (-115), Under (-105).It took one thousandth of a second for me to come to a conclusion. As I was looking for a good daily wagering value, one particular baseball game jumped off the page at me. The Seattle Mariners visiting Camden Yards in Baltimore and sending RHP Jeff Weaver (2-6, 6.32 ERA) to the mound to face the Orioles’RHP Steve Trachsel (5-7, 4.97 ERA). What came immediately to mind is, bet the OVER. Now I must prove to myself what I already assume, but with real numbers backing it up.
In Weaver’s five most recent starts, the Mariners have given up 5.4 runs per game. Granted, not all of those runs were credited to Weaver however, his inability to go deep into a game prior to needing relief also attributes to runs. As for his performance over the season, his 6.32 ERA speaks for itself. In his last outing versus the Angels on July 31, he gave up 6-runs in 4-innings leading to an 8-0 Angels win. Weaver’s start previous to the Angels debacle, the Mariners gave up 6 runs in a 6-2 loss. To his credit, Weaver only gave up 3 earned runs before exiting the game after 7.1 innnings. His downfall there was giving up 2-home runs. Over Weavers last 10 starts the team has given up an average of 4.3 runs per game.
In Trachsel’s last five starts, the Orioles gave up 6.6 runs per game and 6.3 runs over his last 10 starts. The runs given up were the product of a combined poor pitching effort by Trachsel and his bull-pen. In Trachsel’s pervious 5-starts, he only lasted 4.1 innings before needing relief.
Oddsmakers at Bodog.com expect this game to produce some runs, resulting in a slightly inflated total . However, if each pitcher show’s true form the 10.5 total will not hold. While oddsmakers see this as an even matchup with both teams installed at -105 ml, I feel Seattle is the team to beat SU in the game. While Weaver has struggled, he is a better pitcher than Trachsel, but that’s not saying much.
