NL East recap and team analysis

Written by Chris Goudey

Saturday, 10 February 2007

NL East recap and team analysis 2006 saw a new champion in the NL East (NY Mets) for the first time since the Braves joined the division in 1994. The Braves did lose the division in '94 to the Expos, but since that was the strike year, those records aren't considered final. Anyway, it was a big shake-up year in the division, so let's see what each team in the NL East did to try to unseat the new champs! Bet on baseball at WagerWeb.com and receive a 30% bonus!

Here is a recap and brief analysis of each NL East team's offseason moves:

Atlanta Braves: The Braves are coming off their first non-division-winning season in 15 years, so you would think they would make a lot of moves to try to get back to that top spot, but they really didn't. One move they did make was to trade power-hitting 1B Andy LaRoche to Pittsburgh for lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez. I'm not a huge fan of this deal from the Braves side. Gonzalez has been a pretty good closer for Pittsburgh the last few years, but guys who can hit 40 HRs in the majors don't grow on trees, and the Braves just dealt one of the two they had (Andruw Jones is the other). They did make one very nice deal in my opinion, giving up spot starter Horacio Ramirez to Seattle for what could be their closer for years to come, Rafael Soriano. Ramirez is just not a major-league quality starter, so to be able to trade him for a guy who throws in the high-90s and has had excellent ERA numbers his whole career thus far is just a steal.

The Braves have Bob Wickman signed to be the closer for this season, but Wickman is old and habitually out of shape, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Soriano as the closer by the end of the year. The Soriano trade is why I don't really like this deal to acquire Gonzalez. They now have two guys who basically do the same thing, which is to come in and blow people away with heat. Granted, one is a righty and one is a lefty, but I'd much rather have the power-hitting 1B because they are much more reliable on a year-to-year basis. The Braves really didn't acquire anyone else of significance, but they did lose a couple of players who I think might hurt the team in 2007, 2B Marcus Giles and RP Danys Baez. Giles has been injury-prone, but he's much more talented than Martin Prado, who is in line to be the starter there this year. I'm guessing the Braves will try and pick up someone else to compete with Prado because he's never been considered a top prospect. The loss of Baez to the Orioles is going to hurt the bullpen depth, but I'm guessing the team will use Soriano in the 8th inning set-up role that Baez was in last year. The Braves also lost SP John Thomson to Toronto, but he was no great shakes anyway, and they do have Mike Hampton returning from injury to fill that spot. The team is also counting on youngsters Chuck James and Kyle Davies to fill in the two other rotation spots behind John Smoltz and Tim Hudson.

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Florida Marlins: If you follow the sport at all, you know there is always talk that the Marlins are going to move to a new city because the South Florida population doesn't support the team well enough. As a result the Marlins usually aren't a team to make a big offseason splash, and this winter has been no different. There is a ton of young talent on the team, both on offense (Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla) and in the starting rotation (Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez), which is as good a group of young arms as any team has in the majors. The only big move I can see the team making is to trade one of those young arms for an outfield bat, with rumblings being heard about a deal with Tampa Bay for one of their surplus OFs. So far though, the team has only picked up a couple of minor pieces for depth in 3B Aaron Boone and RP Kevin Gregg. Boone will provide help at the corner infield spots and Gregg should fill into that set-up role nicely. The primary loss the team suffered this offseason was 2006 closer Joe Borowski, who signed with Cleveland. Bo,rowski did a nice job for the Fish with 36 saves, but at age 35 and his becoming a free-agent, they figured they could find someone 10 years younger and millions cheaper to fill that slot. The first shot at the job is expected to go to 24-year-old lefty Taylor Tankersley, who struck out over a batter an inning in 2006, with a nice 2.85 ERA.

New York Mets: After running away with the division a year ago, the Mets didn't make too many changes in the offseason, mostly just tinkering with the bullpen and filling a hole in left field. After coming off a disappointing postseason, it was expected to be a winter filled with big-name signings by the team. GM Omar Minaya didn't pay the big bucks that SP Barry Zito wanted however, (rightfully so in my opinion, he was way overpaid by the Giants) and because the team is so strong on offense, the only signing of prominence was OF Moises Alou. Alou is going to play LF for the Mets, and even at his advanced age, can still swing the bat well and will have plenty of chances to knock in runs. The starting rotation is going to be the soft spot on this team again, with old men Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez at the top and unproven youngsters John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey at the bottom. Glavine was rock-solid as always in 2006, and Maine did quite well for the team also. Perez is a huge question mark, as he has only ever been able to have one good season, and Pelfrey is a highly touted rookie, but it remains to be seen how he'll fare under the pressure of playing in New York. The bullpen underwent a big upheaval, as out the door went Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez, Darren Oliver and Heath Bell, and in came Scott Schoeneweis, Ambiorix Burgos, Jorge Sosa and Jon Adkins. The bullpen was actually very good in 2006, so I'm not sure what the Mets were thinking there. All the guys they brought in do have talent, especially Burgos, who throws 100 mph. He'll probably be looked at as the closer a couple of years down the line, after Billy Wagner either retires or moves on to another team.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are a team that could be very good in 2007 if the players they acquired in the offseason work out for them. They made what I thought was a good trade when they acquired SP Freddy Garcia from the White Sox for SP Gavin Floyd and SP prospect Gio Gonzalez. Garcia is a workhorse who will give the team 200+ innings, while Floyd hadn't proven anything at the big-league level, and Gonzalez is a grade B prospect. Garcia is probably on the downside of his career now, but after facing the powerful lineups in the American League for all those years, he'll probably have a good year now that he's in the weaker NL. The Phillies also added another new face to the rotation with the signing of Adam Eaton. Eaton has had some injury issues the last couple of years, but 2-3 years ago he was considered one of the next wave of good young pitchers in the NL. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to return to that level. The team got a lot younger at catcher, with Mike Lieberthal leaving town to join the Dodgers and Rod Barajas, formerly of Texas, signing to upgrade the position a little bit. The team also lost SP Randy Wolf to the Dodgers, but with his injury history it really isn't a big loss, and I think Garcia and Eaton will do better for them anyway. One more player the team lost was OF David Dellucci. I think they under-used him in a big way in 2006, and I would've liked to have seen him get a shot to play full-time in that tiny ballpark, but I guess they wanted to keep the power potential of Pat Burrell instead.

Washington Nationals: It pains me to say this because this is my hometown team, but I think the Nationals probably had the worst offseason of any team in the majors. Essentially the team lost three starters on offense and two starting pitchers, and acquired no one who is going to help the team in 2007. It was assumed that OF Alfonso Soriano was going to sign elsewhere, and I really don't know why the team didn't trade him at the deadline in 2006 if it didn't plan on giving him the most money in the offseason. The Nats could've gotten at least 2-3 good prospects for him, but instead they let him walk out the door for nothing. The team also lost starting OF Jose Guillen and 2B Jose Vidro to Seattle. They did trade Vidro and got a couple of decent prospects in return in OF Chris Snelling and RP Emiliano Fruto, but neither player is going to help the team win many games in the near future. The team let SP Tony Armas and Ramon Ortiz leave via free agency, and right now they are counting on the likes of Mike O'Connor, Billy Traber, Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann to fill the rotation after No. 1 starter John Patterson. If I were a Nats fan (oh wait, I am) I'd be counting the days until the new stadium opens and the team starts making some money. The team does have a few good players to build around (1B Nick Johnson, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Felipe Lopez and Patterson) but for 2007, it's looking like at least 100 losses for my Nats. Ugh.