On Sunday Barry Bonds hit a Tim Wakefield knuckleball into the visitor’s bullpen at Fenway Park for his 748th career home during interleague action between the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants in Boston’s Fenway Park. The home run moves Bonds to within seven of tying Hank Aaron’s record of 755 and within eight of surpassing it. As Bonds nears Aaron’s record, it presents a good time to examine betting odds on Player Props surrounding Bond’s pursuit provided by online sportsbook Bodog.com.
If you are a stats hound or what I call a numbers cruncher, handicapping player props is enjoyable and can lead to good profit at the betting window. Knowledge is the player’s best tool in predicting the future and that’s what props are all about. We see into the future by looking at what’s been done in the past. Keeping up with trends also allows the bettor to zero in on the time a record might fall.
At first sight, some props appear to be near impossible to predict but fortunately us, Major League Baseball is known for keeping great statistics. And they keep stats on just about anything and everything making our research much easier.
A bet can be made on what inning Bond’s 756th dinger will come. The odds Bonds breaks the record in extra innings are slim at 15/2. They are not good in the ninth at 11/2. According to his career stats, it’s most likely Bonds cracks the homer through the first six innings of a game. The innings oddsmakers most favor the slugger to crack a long one is the first and sixth, each showing 4/1 odds. The fourth and fifth innings each carry 5/1 odds he cracks the record breaker while the seventh tails off at 9/2 and the eighth at 6/1.
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Inning Hr odds
1st 129 4/1
2nd 59 7/2
3rd 101 6/1
4th 99 5/1
5th 83 5/1
6th 79 4/1
7th 62 9/2
8th 72 6/1
9th 53 11/2
10+ 11 15/2
