Again, It’s the Cardinals and the Padres leading off the National League divisional series just as it was in 2005 when Saint Louis won three straight from San Diego. Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter was on his way to winning his first Cy Young award and Padres’ ace Jake Peavey was struggling while pitching with a broken rib.
This year, it’s the Cardinals who are limping into the series. The Red Bird lineup looks more like a hospital ward than a starting-nine. Jim Edmonds who will be batting cleanup in game one has recently returned to the line-up from spending time on the disabled list along with shortstop David Eckstein and third baseman Scott Rolen.
Carpenter will be on the mound for the Cardinals in game one and more than likely in game five, if the series goes that far. Carpenter had been scheduled to Start Sunday versus Milwaukee but was pulled by LaRussa in hopes of keeping his top starter fresh. Luckily, the gamble paid off as Atlanta knocked off Houston eliminating the Astro’s from the divisional race.
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“The only way the Cardinals win this series is in five games,” insisted one National League scout who followed them for much of the past three weeks.” The Padres can win this in four games but the Cardinals’ only chance is to stretch it to five and give Carpenter a chance to be outstanding twice.”
The Cardinals would prefer to be opening the series at new Busch Stadium, where they are 49-31 than on the road where they struggled to 34 wins, and the lowest of any team involved in the playoffs.
This year’s pairing represents a reversal of last season when the Cardinals led the major leagues with 100 wins and the Padres limped in with an 82-80 record. The Cardinals parlayed six shutout innings from Carpenter in a Game 1 win and ran out the series in three games despite being out-hit.
The Padres won 88 games this season, including eight of their last 10, and led the league in team ERA (3.87) for the first time in franchise history. The Cardinals out scored the Padre’s by 50 runs during the season but allowed 83 more runs and 23 more home runs. The Padres’ pitching staff struck out 123 more hitters and walked 36 fewer.
The Cardinals haven’t won consecutive games on the road since July 25-26, making a split at San Diego’s Petco Park appealing. They last won a road series Aug 18-20 against the Chicago Cubs. Carpenter pitched the rubber game, a 5-3 win.
From the Padres’ stand point, the best way to beat the Cardinals is not to pitch to National League MVP Albert Pujols. “Pujols is the guy you cannot let beat you in the lineup,” Jake Peavey said. “That’s not to take anything away from anybody in front of him or behind him. He is the best hitter in this lineup and maybe in the National League and everybody know that.”
Even though the Cardinals squirmed their way to the NL Central division title with a horrible finish to the regular season, they are the favorite to win the series. If you have Pujols in the lineup and Carpenter on the mound, the odds of winning will always be high. Pujols can h it any pitcher in the majors and has Rolen and Edmonds to back him up. Carpenter is a different breed in the playoffs and his Cy Young form will appear come Tuesday afternoon.
The only thing standing in the way of the Cardinals is the right arm of Jake Peavy who gets the start in Game One and can change the face of this series if he comes out firing on all cylinders. If not, the Padres will be packing their bags and booking flights home after just one trip to Saint Louis.
Prediction: The Cardinals win in four.
