The Saint Louis Cardinals were the least likely of the eight Major League Baseball playoff teams to reach the World Series however the unexpected became reality Thursday night as Cardinal’s catcher Yadier Molena hit a two-run home run off New York Mets reliever Aaron Heilman in the top of the ninth inning in game seven, breaking a 1-1 deadlock and crushing the hopes of the heavily favored NY Mets.
The Cardinals stumbled into the playoffs after nearly blowing a six-game NL Central Division lead and lost six of their last ten games prior to seasons end. Fortunately the Houston Astros came up short in their late season surge for the divisional lead by losing with two games left in the season. The Cardinals were in the playoffs but not expected to surpass the pitching heavy Padres in the NLDS. It was Saint Louis who dominated from the mound winning the five game series in four.
Detroit dominated the American League Central Division most of the season but lost five straight games to end the regular season allowing the Minnesota Twins to take the division by one game. The Tigers overcame their slump by defeating the New York Yankees in the ALDS in four games and then sweeping the Oakland Athletics four straight in the ALCS.
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The Tigers, now winners of seven straight post-season games are considered the team to beat in the World Series. According to some, Detroit has the best pitching rotation in baseball consisting of Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman.
The Cardinals pitching strength is in 2005 Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter and NLCS MVP Jeff Suppan. Saint Louis picked up a struggling Jeff Weaver from the Los Angeles Angels after the All-Star. The change of scenery did Weaver good as he helped carry the Cardinals into the playoffs and through the first two series with San Diego and New York. The fourth pitcher in the Saint Louis rotation is rookie right-hander Anthony Reyes.
Getting the starting nod in game one at Detroit are the two rookies, Reyes for the Cards and Verlander for the Tigers.
Reyes (0-0, 4.50 ERA postseason; 5-8, 5.06 regular season) scuffled through four tough but ultimately effective innings in his playoff debut, allowing two runs in Game 4 of the NLCS. The Cards believed that Reyes was tipping his pitches, but even so, he kept the damage to a minimum against a dangerous lineup. The right-hander throws a riding fastball, a curveball and a plus changeup that is his out pitch. He shows excellent poise on the mound for such an inexperienced pitcher.
The more accomplished half of the all-rookie matchup, Verlander (1-0, 5.91 ERA postseason; 17-9, 3.63 regular season) will be the first World Series Game 1 rookie starter since Livan Hernandez took the ball for Jim Leyland's Marlins against the Indians in 1997. The only Tigers rookie to ever start a World Series game was Ed Summers in Game 4 of the 1908 Fall Classic against the Cubs. Verlander's postseason numbers haven't been stellar, but his ability to produce swings and misses have helped keep the Tigers in games long enough to rally ahead. He allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings against the Cardinals back in June, but it was enough for an eventual 10-6 win.
Starting game two in Detroit will be Jeff Weaver for the Cardinals against the Tigers ace Kenny Rogers. It's a bit of a homecoming for Weaver (2-1, 2.16 ERA postseason; 8-14, 5.76 regular season), who began his career as a Tiger. Acquired as a reclamation project in July, the right hinder has been the Cardinals' best pitcher in the postseason. His win in Game 5 of the NLCS probably represented the pivotal performance in that series, and he has not struggled in three playoff starts in 2006. Weaver has shown the ability to succeed a couple of different ways, either as a fastball-slider pitcher or by mixing in his curveball.
The emotional Rogers (2-0, 0.00 ERA postseason; 17-8, 3.84 regular season) displays on the mound will be fuel for the home crowd. His Game 3 performances in the Tigers' last two series have been masterpieces to watch, compiling a 16 1/3-inning postseason scoreless streak dating back to against the Twins in the 2003 AL Division Series. Rogers gave up five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in a June start at Comerica Park. His style is somewhat similar to Tom Glavine, who shut out St. Louis for seven innings in Game 1 of the NLCS before the Cards knocked him out after four innings in Game 5.
The key pitching matchup for the Cardinals will be in game three when the series kicks back to Saint Louis on Tuesday when 2005 Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter takes the mound. Carpenter (2-1, 3.70 ERA postseason; 15-8, 3.09 regular season) throws four "plus" pitches for strikes, making him a handful for even the most potent lineups. Carpenter has made seven playoff starts in his career, and St. Louis has won six of those games. However, he was injured during the club's 2004 run, so this will be his first career World Series appearance.
Once again, Robertson (1-1, 5.91 ERA postseason; 13-13 regular season) opens up for the Tigers on the road, the same scene he faced while starting Game 1 for the Tigers in the previous two rounds. He worked well to get out of trouble in Game 1 of ALCS while allowing six hits and three walks over five scoreless innings against the A's. He allowed two runs over 21 1/3 innings against National League teams this year during Interleague Play. As a hitter, he had an RBI single this year for his only base hit in 14 career at-bats.
The key to this series is in game three. If the Cardinals can steal a win in Detroit in games one or two and take the series to Saint Louis evened up for game three, Chris Carpenter will be tough to beat.
Detroit is favored at Nine.Com offshore sportsbook to win the best of seven World Series –210 to +190 for the Cardinals. The game one odds also favor the Tigers –182 to +167 ML for Saint Louis.
If the Cardinals steal either of the first two games look for a shift in how oddsmakers view the series. A prolonged series will favor the Cardinals.
