The 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals open tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Dallas to face a well rested Mavericks squad at the American Airlines Center. Dirk Nowitzki and company are listed as -6 against the spread favorites in tonight's Game 1 showdown, and most offshore books are looking for the Mavs to win the series as well. Among the prop bets being offered on the best of seven affair is the Series Correct Score. The two most likely outcomes, at least according to NBA bookmakers, are Dallas to win the series 4-1 and Dallas to win the series 4-3. Both results are presently set at +300 moneyline odds.
Recent history would suggest that a 4-2 outcome is the most likely result for this series as five of the last 11 Western
Conference finals have ended with Game 6. A 4-1 series outcome has taken place three times in that same stretch while 4-0 and 4-3 results have each occurred two times.
While those numbers serve as a guideline, there are, obviously, a number of other factors to consider, including this year's postseason and how the two teams matchup.
Dallas has had a relatively ease run through the playoffs, beating the Trail Blazers 4-2 in the first round before sweeping the Lakers 4-0 in the Conference Semifinals. The Mavericks have been a perfect blend of offense and defense in the postseason, ranking fourth and third in points and points per game allowed respectively.
Their size inside and their quickness on the perimeter were too much for either the Blazers or Lakers to handle. The Thunder, though, matchup better with the Mavericks than either of those squads, and they have the offensive chops to make Dallas expend a great deal of energy on the defensive end of the floor. Oklahoma City currently ranks first in the playoffs in points per game at 103 (12 games).
The Mavericks won the season series between the two teams 2-1, but OKC took the last meeting (January 6th) 99-95 in Dallas.
Dallas' offense will get it to the NBA Finals for the second time since 2006, but the Thunder will not go down without a fight. Given Oklahoma City's overall talent and ability to score the ball, the two best options, at least in this writer's opinion, are the Mavs in six (+300) or seven (+400) games.
Thunder vs Mavericks 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals Prop Bets: Series Correct Score
Thunder to win 4-0 (+2500)
Thunder to win 4-1 (+1200)
Thunder to win 4-2 (+500)
Thunder to win 4-3 (+650)
Mavericks to win 4-0 (+900)
Mavericks to win 4-1 (+300)
Mavericks to win 4-2 (+400)
Mavericks to win 4-3 (+300)
