After stealing a victory at Miami in Game-2 to even the "best of seven" 2011 NBA Finals at one game apiece, the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat move the series to American Airlines Center in Dallas for games 3-through-5 with Game-3 tipping off Sunday (8:05 pm ET). Oddsmakers at most offshore sports shops list the Heat as -150 NBA Odds favorites to win the series while Mavericks backers are getting +120 odds as underdogs.
For Game-3, the Mavericks are 2 1/2-chalk NBA Finals Odds favorites for with a 189 total. Heat backers are getting +120 on the moneyline while the ML price of a SU Dallas victory is -140.
In spite of Miami's loss in Game-2, the public hasn't wavered on its support for the Heat, at the betting window at least, with 72% wagering on a SU Miami victory in Game-3 and a slim majority of 51% giving the 2 1/2-chalk and taking the Heat ATS. In totals betting, 56% of early wagers on on the game score to go OVER the posted 189.
We knew what Dallas was facing in Game-2 and to be honest, were surprised with their huge comeback after being down by 14 points late in the game. After being successful with our winning pick (Heat -4 1/2) in Game-1 we were mildly surprised the Heat caved at home in such a pivotal Game-2. If Miami wins Game-2, and they should have, this series is virtually over. Now that it, the series, heads to Dallas even-up at 1-1, its anybody's game. Actually, the Mavericks could have the upper hand psychologically. They know they can win where if Miami had taken care of business at home, the Mavericks would be looking at a up hill fight.
Futures bettors who wagerd the Mavericks at +1600 NBA Playoffs Odds (pre-playoffs) should be rejoicing in the streets. Of course there's four more games to play, if the series goes that long, but Dallas has a chance to win this thing at home; not that it will happen but there's the chance. Miami's still the favorite to win the series but their odds of doing so are less since opening at +275 pre-playoffs odds.
The keys to getting a victory today are for Miami's defense to step it up like it did in Game-1 where it virtually shut the Mavericks down inside. I've picked the Heat to win in both games but today I expect Dallas to show up at home. I still expect the Heat to win the series which means, they need to get one in Dallas but it won't be today.
