A Miami Heat victory would deliver a crushing blow to the Dallas Mavericks' championship chances if it can steal another one on the road at American Airlines Center in Dallas in Tuesday’s Game-4 of the 2011 NBA Finals(9 pm ET).
The Mavericks have their backs to the wall looking up at the Heat, down 1-to-2, in the series. Probably sensing the desperation, oddsmakers have installed Dallas as 3-chalk NBA Finals Odds favorites for Game-4 with a posted (over/under) total of 187. Heat backers will be getting +125 moneyline odds as SU underdogs.
Thievery has become common place in the “best of seven games” playoffs series. After dominating Game-1 in Miami, the Heat allowed Dallas to steal Game-2, therefore sending the series to Dallas even at 1-1. Miami returned the favor, in front of a hostile pro-Mavericks crowd, by stealing Game-3. If the Heat can find a way to beat the Mavericks tonight, they could be well on their way to winning the franchises’ second championship in its history.
In Sunday’s Game-3, Miami took a 2-1 series lead with its 88-86 road victory over Dallas. The Heat covered the point-spread as +2-underdogs, while the combined score of 174 fell UNDER the posted total.
Miami's Game-3 win seems to have swayed the betting public its way in the series with early betting trends showing 68% wagering on the Heat to win Game-4 SU and a small 54% majority wagering to win ATS. Betting opened favoring Dallas by -2 1/2 but has now shifted favoring the Mavericks by -3.
Now that Miami has some cushion in the series, most offshore sports shops now list the Heat as -350 NBA Finals Odds favorites to win the championship while Mavericks’ backers are lined as +275 series underdogs.
Playoffs Prediction: I was surprised the Heat allowed Dallas to crash its party in Game-2 and was not shocked when Miami returned the favor at American Airlines Center on Sunday. While tonight's game is crucial for the Mavericks, it's also crucial for the Heat if they want to send a strong message to Mavs players of – "you're not going to win this thing." It was my opinion Dallas needed to win Sunday's game and they didn't. I will not be shocked to see the Heat, the better team, win tonight and put all the pressure on the Mavericks for Game-5. I do think Dallas will win one of these three in Dallas while the win the series in Game-5 back in Miami.
