After a run through Miami for Games 1-and-2, then Dallas for three, the 2011 NBA Finals returns to Miami for the final two – if needed. Experts thought the series had a chance of going six games but to the surprise of many, it's the Dallas Mavericks who have a chance of winning in six. The Miami Heat will have to do it in seven if they do it at all. The Heat are still favorites to win the series but just barely, -110 on the offshore NBA Finals Odds board compared to the Mavericks at -120.
Miami and Dallas split the first two games in Miami but the Heat went into Dallas and took Game-3 and a 2-1 series lead. At that point, it appeared the series might never return to South Beach. The Mavericks had other ideas, stealing Game-4 from the Heat who appeared to be on their way to a third win. Dallas then took control of the series winning Game-4 by nine, 112-103, and covering ATS as 1-point favorites. The 115 points scored went OVER the posted total for the first time this series.
For Sunday's Game-6, oddsmakers have installed the Heat as -4 1/2-chalk favorites with a 187 total. Mavericks' backers will be getting +190 odds as moneyline underdogs while a SU Heat wager is priced at -130.
The Heat was the most popular betting choice earlier in the series but now that has changed. Since the Mavericks took a 3-2 series lead, the public has shifted priorities with 71% betting the Mavericks ATS and by 78% on the moneyline.
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