The San Antonio Spurs have their first chance to clinch the NBA Playoffs first round series tonight against the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs return home to the AT&T Center in San Antonio after winning both games in Denver’s Pepsi Center and taking a 3-1 lead in the best of seven series. With a win tonight, the Spurs will end the series in five games and should be well rested when the second round begins.
Since the Nuggets took the opening game of the series in San Antonio, the Spurs have won three straight with an average margin of victory of seven points. The Spurs are 8-0 in series when they’ve held a 3-1 lead, and they are 6-2 in clinching Game-Fives.
Oddsmakers at most offshore sportsbooks have installed the Spurs the favorite with a -8.0 chalk and have set the total at 189 ½ points. The price of a money line (ml) bet on the Spurs is -460 while the juice on a Nuggets win is +360 ml. After losing game-one to the Nuggets as a -8 ½ point favorite, the Spurs have covered the line against the spread (ATS) in the three-game streak while the total has cashed for the UNDER in all three Spurs wins.
It doesn’t appear the public is buying the -8.0 favorites line on the Spurs as the Nets are getting 68% of the early betting action. The early trend on the ML shows the public money on the Nets at 54%. The majority (59%) of wagers also favor the 189 ½ point total to follow the UNDER trend.
It’s my opinion the Nuggets, with their backs to the wall, could be dangerous in this game. With the average margin of victory at seven points during the three game Spurs streak, the -8.0 line could be a good value but a ml bet on Denver while not beyond the realm of possibility could be a reach. I think 189 ½ total will go UNDER.
