The Denver Nuggets were supposed to shoot out of the gate like Secretariat last season.
Instead, they emerged like Mr. Ed.
No fault of their own, you understand. A season-ending knee injury to power forward/center Nene three minutes into the opener wiped out much of the enthusiasm gained from finishing 2004-05 on a 32-8 tear.
The Nuggets hung around .500 most of last year, which was good enough to win the NBA's sorriest division. The fact that it earned a third seed by taking the Northwest with 43 victories forced the league to change the seeding rules in the playoffs, which proved slightly embarrassing. But the change seems justified after the Nuggets fell to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round.
Nene has returned to join a talented group that includes small forward Carmelo Anthony, who played his way into the superstar realm last year, volatile power forward Kenyon Martin, steady point guard Andre Miller, explosive waterbug guard Earl Boykins, rebounding machine Marcus Camby and newly acquired forward Joe Smith.
If the Nuggets stay healthy and Coach George Karl maximizes his talent, they are capable of winning 50 games and earning homecourt advantage at least in the first round of the postseason. And it's a safe bet that they will again win the Northwest, pretty much by default.
Key additions: F Smith, G J.R. Smith
Key subtractions: G Greg Buckner, C Francisco Elson, G/F Ruben Patterson
Sportsbook odds: Perhaps because they appear to be a shoo-in to win the Northwest Division, bettors have been placing bucks on the Nuggets (as opposed to nuggets on the Bucks). WagerWeb.com lists them as +2500 (25-1) to win it all despite a rather modest over/under victory total of 43.
Player to watch: The only questionable spot in the rotation is off-guard, but the Nuggets are hoping Smith can fill that role. He's an accurate 3-point shooter, a specialty desperately needed considering Denver finished last in the NBA a year ago in that department. Smith shot 37 percent from long range with New Orleans/Oklahoma City in 2005-06, but only hit 39 percent of his shots overall. The Nuggets believe, however, that Smith will emerge as a consistent offensive player with more minutes. The 6-foot-6 Smith must also improve on his average of 2.0 rebounds and 1.1 assists a game, but give him time. He was a high school draftee and is only 21.
Outlook: The glowing expectations surrounding the Nuggets last year have dissipated quite a bit due to their inconsistencies a year ago. But few teams in the Western Conference boast more talent. Odds are they will win up to 10 more games than they did a year ago if they can stay out of the operating room and Martin remains content. They could use a bit more depth, but Boykins is a first-class pest coming off the bench, and it appears Nene will open the season in the rotation as a reserve. They now have a legitimate superstar in Anthony, who registered career-highs in minutes, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and points per game last year. The Nuggets are fortunate there is little competition in the Northwest Division, because it will allow them to gear toward peaking in time for the playoffs.
