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Suns favored to clinch playoffs first-round series with Game-Five home win over the Lakers

by Benton Vale on Wednesday, May 2nd, 2007

The Phoenix Suns took a commanding 3-1 first round NBA Playoffs lead over the Los Angeles Lakers Monday night and can clinch the best of seven game series with a win over the Lakers tonight when the series resumes with Game-Five at the US Air Center in Phoenix. 

Oddsmakers at most offshore sportsbooks have installed the Suns as lopsided double-digit home favorite with a -10 ½ point chalk. The cost of a money line bet on the Suns is  pricey at -700 while a Lakers ml bet is +500. The total is holding at 210. 

While going 3-1 in the first four playoff games against the Lakers, the Suns have split the four games ATS going 2-2 and the total also split in the four playoff games, two for the OVER and two for the UNDER; however, the total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Suns home games. Phoenix is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home. Phoenix is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home. 

The Lakers are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games and are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games. The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Lakers last 21 games. LA is 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road.

In the 113-100 Game-Four win in Los Angeles , two-time MVP Steve Nash dished out a career-best 23 assists, one shy of the NBA record and tied an NBA record of 15 assists in the first half as the Suns took a 58-51 lead after two quarters. Amare Stoudemire added a team-high 27 points and playoff career-high 21 rebounds as Nash and Stoudemire became the first teammate tandem in NBA playoff history to record 20 assists and 20 rebounds in a single game. Kobe Bryant scored 28 of his game-high 31 points in the first three quarters. Phoenix had assists on 34 of its 41 field goals made (.829). 

I think the UNDER (210) carries the best value for tonight’s game . The Lakers will try to be deliberate if not methodical with the ball and slow the game as much as they can. It’s do or die time for LA and they will no chance of beating the Suns running up and down the court. The Suns will win the game so the -700 ml is probably safe, however I never make those large ml plays. I almost always shy away from side bets with double-digit chalk; especially in the Play-Offs. 

The Play: Under 210

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