There are similarities between top-seeds Duke Blue Devils and 5-seeds Arizona Wildcats as they prepare to play in the late game (9:50 pm) at the 2011 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament Western Regionals in Anaheim, Calif., Thursday night. Both Duke and Arizona are traditional college basketball powerhouses who are used to being in the spotlight.
Odds makers at most off shore sports shops list the Blue Devils as 8 1/2-chalk NCAA Basketball Odds favorites for the game with a combined point total of 148. Wildcats' backers are getting +380 odds on the off shore money line while the price of a ML wager on Duke is -480. For bettors unfamiliar with ML format wagering; in order to win $100 wagering Duke to win SU, it requires a $480 wager. On the flip side, today's underdog, lined at +380 ML, wins $380 with a SU win.
A surprising trend has developed showing public betting percentages (66%) siding with Arizona ATS while money line percentages are a bookies dream at 50/50. Often Duke will get the benefit of the doubt on most peoples College Basketball Picks brackets when playing outside of the ACC. Totals percentages show 80% of action risked on the game score to go OVER the 148 ½ points posted by odds makers.
One will generally find teams like Duke have tremendous won-loss records that don't always translate as good covering the point spread. This is because they are overlined. Odds makers expect the public will bite on large double-digit spreads. The Blue Devils own a 24-0 SU home record this season but their ATS home record is only 12-10 in lined games. On the road Duke covered the spread in 8-of-13 games while going 8-4 SU. Arizona won 21-of-22 games at home this season and went 8-6 on the road for a SU record of 29-7 while their record ATS is 18-15, 11-10 at home and 7-5 on the road.
Arizona edged the Washington Huskies for the Pac-10 regular season championship with a 14-4 league record but lost to the Huskies in the conference tournament championship game. The Wildcats were assigned to the West Regional as a 5-seed. Duke, sent out West as the top-seed. Arizona defeated 12 Memphis and 4 Texas at the Tulsa sub-regional to get into the regional semifinals.
Duke gave way to North Carolina in the ACC regular season standings but toppled the Tar Heels in the ACC Tournament. The defending NCAA champs drew a No. 1 seed and were sent out West as a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils soundly defeated Hampton in the second round at the sub-regional site in Charlotte and edged Michigan by a point in the third.
The betting line, after opening favoring Duke by -10, has come down to Duke by 8 1/2. I expect Arizona to fight in this game and keep it close if not win in a close game. My NCAA Betting Picks bracket has Arizona +8 1/2.
