The Motor City is set to go this evening as the 2009 Final Four tips off at 6:07pm ET with a contest between Midwest Region winner Michigan State and West Region champion Connecticut. The North Carolina Tar Heels, the top seed and winner of the South Region, and the Villanova Wildcats, the East Region victor, will square off at approximately 8:47pm ET.
2009 Final Four Predictions at Sportsbook.com have the Tar Heels listed at -150 moneyline odds to win the 2009 NCAA National Championship.
Michigan State vs Connecticut: The Spartans, who are a +4 against the spread underdog in tonight's face off with the Huskies, are 30-6 on the year and 9-3 in neutral site games. They are averaging 71.8 points per game while giving up a paltry 62.7 per outing to their opposition. Michigan State has won 13 of their last 15 games heading into their tilt with the Huskies.
Connecticut has improved their record to 31-4 with their four tournament wins and they are 8-1 in neutral site games this season. Jim Calhoun's troops are hitting for 78.5 per game and giving up 63.7 per contest to their competition. UConn is 20-3 in their last 23 games, losing only to Big East foes Pittsburgh and Syracuse.
This game should be a lower scoring affair as both teams like to work out of a half-court set. The Huskies definitely have the advantage inside with Hasheem Thabeet, Stanley Robinson, and Jeff Adrien, but it is probably a wash between Spartans guard Kalin Lucas and the Huskies A.J. Price. Michigan State center Goran Suton could pose an interesting challenge to the Huskies, though, as his ability to shoot from the perimemter could help draw Thabeet out of the paint in man-to-man situations. If UConn chooses to play a zone defense, Suton should have little trouble shooting over the Huskies perimeter run outs.
Prediction: Michigan State 71, Connecticut 67
Villanova vs North Carolina: North Carolina, ACC regular season champion and South Region winner, is 32-4 on the year with an 8-1 record in neutral site games. They are averaging 90 points per game and yielding an average of 72.1 per contest to their opponents. The Tar Heels are 8-2 in their last 10 games, suffering a loss at Maryland on February 21st and losing to Florida State in the ACC tournament with Ty Lawson on the bench.
Villanova is now 30-7 after dispatching the Pittsburgh Panthers for a second time this season and they are 8-2 in neutral site games. The Wildcats are averaging 77 points per game and giving up 66.9 to their challengers. Jay Wright's squad has won 10 of their last 12 games, losing to Big East rivals Georgetown and Louisville.
This should be an up-tempo game given North Carolina's penchant for fast-break play and Villanova's ability to play that style effectively. The Wildcats, however, may look to slow it down some as they are probably more than aware it is hard to beat the Tar Heels at their own game. The perimeter matchup should be interesting as Villanova runs a guard oriented attack, but the advantage has to go to the ultra-quick Ty Lawson. Inside, Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson should more than hold their own against Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson, but the Wildcats will struggle to find an answer for Danny Green on the wing.
Prediction: North Carolina 94, Villanova 79
Sportsbook.com's 2009 Final Four Predictions:
North Carolina Tar Heels -150
Connecticut Huskies +250
Michigan State Spartans +600
Villanova Wildcats +650
