When filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket this March, there are three key ingredients that you should look for in the teams you are going to take to the Final Four. The first ingredient is defense. It is impossible for a team to light it up from the field each game of the tournament so putting your money on the teams who can “D” it up is the way to go.
The next key ingredient you should consider when making your Final Four predictions is depth. Despite Duke having a pair of All-American’s last season with Redick and Williams, the Blue Devils had no spark coming off the bench to help pick up the slack if those guys were having an off night or got into foul trouble. Duke’s mortal rival, North Carolina, is a team I look to as having great depth. The Tar Heels have 10 players averaging better than 10 minutes per game and none of those 10 average over 30 minutes.
With Roy Williams being able to keep his players’ minutes down all season long, he will have his boys a lot fresher than most teams in the Big Dance. This will enable his starters to play more minutes in the postseason when it really counts. Most teams do not have this luxury and need their starters on the floor for near 40 minutes just to put themselves in a position to make the tournament. Also, by having more guys play minutes in the regular season, they will be more suited to perform in key situations in the postseason if coach Williams calls their number.
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The third and final ingredient is experience. We know that this isn’t a given as Carmello Anthony and Luke McNamara showed in 2003 when they brought home a title for the Orangemen. Talent has proven to beat experience on occasion. But when I say experience, I don’t necessarily mean juniors and seniors, as having a team of seniors in college in this day and age is highly unlikely with major programs.
For example, I think UCLA is perhaps the most experienced team in college basketball and it has a great shot at making a Final Four run because of the players it returns and the experience it gained last season getting so deep in the tournament. The Bruins lost Farmar to the pros, but Collison, who is a sophomore, is filling in nicely. The key word here is sophomore as I feel there is a huge difference between a freshman and a sophomore in most cases.
I use Michael Jordan’s development as my primary example. Afflalo is a junior and Shipp is a sophomore. Having key players with big game experience on a team is the easiest way to get the rest of the guys up to speed as they see the confidence that guys like Afflalo and Shipp play with. Wisconsin is another team with a lot of experienced players, namely Tucker and Taylor, but it lacks the big game experience that UCLA has.
These are the three key ingredients to your Final Four recipe and some teams that could fit the mold. If you look to defense, depth, and big game experience, you will taking a big step in the right direction this March.
