Ole Miss Rebels 2010 College Football Predictions – BCS Odds 2011: Making a futures bet on a Houston Nutt coached football team can be a bit tricky. A good rule of thumb to follow is this; when expectations are high – expect a letdown. When confidence is low – his teams come to life. Expectations are always high at Ole Miss but this year nobody is expecting the Rebels to compete for a BCS Championship or the SEC crown. College football oddsmakers at online sportsbook SBGglobal.com list the Rebels' BCS championship odds at +8000 (80/1).
I have my opinions and that's all they are, but I believe they have some merit because I've been following Nutt's teams since Murray State back in the mid-90's along with the trends. Nutt is a motivational wizard much like an evangelical preacher. He can get emotion and performance and out of an undertalented team like nobody else. The problem is, once his teams reach championship level, it seems Nutt is prone to getting outcoached. The best example of that was his 2006 season at Arkansas when he not only had Heisman Trophy candidate Darren McFadden in the backfield, but Felix Jones as well. This team won ten games but had the talent to win a BCS Championship.
That brings us to Ole Miss where Nutt is entering his third year. Nutt took over a talented team recruited by the previous regime of Ed Orgeron including Texas transfer quarterback Jeavon Snead and all-purpose back/receiver Dexter McCluster. The team over-performed in 2008 finishing the season with a big win over favored Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Then in 2009, an over hyped Ole Miss squad underachieved but backed into a Cotton Bowl bid. In the game Ole Miss defeated Oklahoma State 21-7.
What will happen in 2010 at Ole Miss is a bit of a mystery. The Rebels start the season with a new quarterback to replace Snead in sophomore Nathan Stanley. Nutt will continue to use the Wild-Rebel offense, something he claims to have invented while at Arkansas. When Nutt goes to the Wild-Rebel, he will have juco transfer QB Randall Mackey run it.
Fortunately, a strong returning backfield of Brandon Bolden and Rodney Scott will help any inexperienced quarterback. Nutt doesn't need a master back there but a good game manager. Let the horses of Bolden and Scott carry the load. Still, the offense is expected to have a few problems with only three starters returning.
The Ole Miss defense will be looked upon to hold off the opposition until the inexperienced offense can grow up. But there are big holes there as well.
Ole Miss should get wins in their first five games versus Jacksonville State, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Fresno State and Kentucky but then must run the gauntlet of Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn, a daunting task indeed. Look for the Rebels to eek out seven wins but nothing better than that.
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