East Carolina vs North Carolina 2010 College Football Predictions: Odds-makers are difficult folks to figure out at times, that statement based on some of the betting odds they post. This Saturday (3:30 pm Eastern, ESPN3), the East Carolina Pirates (C-USA) football team travels to Chapel Hill for non-conference game with North Carolina (ACC). What has me scratching my head is the nearly two touchdown chalk (-13 1/2 points) that SBGglobal.com has the Tar Heels favored by. I can understand a mid-single digit line, maybe a touchdown, but North Carolina's giving 13 1/2 is too much. So who's the sharp here – me or the odds-makers?
Actually, it's not about who is sharp and who isn't, but how sportsbooks, in this case SBG Global, feel the public will wager. Traditionally, non-seasoned gamblers will run with the favorite. In this game we have a team from a non-BCS conference playing a noted school from a BCS Conference. Without looking into the matchup at any depth, one might think the Tar Heels are a can't miss wager, even giving the points. I beg to differ with that assumption.
For North Carolina to cover 13 1/2-points they will probably need to score at least 40, because East Carolina is running a prolific offense that scores points. ECU has the No. 9 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 42.6 points per game. Their lowest scoring game came against Virginia Tech, but still managed to score 27. And I have a secret for you – Virginia Tech is better than North Carolina and Lane Stadium, where the game was played, is a much louder and intimidating venue than Carolina's Keenan Stadium. Meanwhile the Tar Heels rank 88th in scoring putting up 21.7 points per game. I give Carolina credit for scoring on more difficult defenses of LSU, Georgia Tech and Rutgers.
By now it should be no mystery to you; I like East Carolina to cover as a 13 1/2-point underdog.
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