Minnesota vs. Wisconsin 2010 College Football Predictions: Since winning at Middle Tennessee State in their 2010 opener, Minnesota has lost four in a row, all at home. On Saturday, the Golden Gophers head out on the road to play their rival, No. 20 Wisconsin at Camp-Randal Stadium in Madison (Noon ET, BTN). The Badgers return home after a hard fought battle, losing to Michigan State in Week-5. Wisconsin has not been a good bet ATS going 0-4 on the year. The Golden Gophers are currently 3-1 ATS in spite of their four losses.
Sportsbook.com lists the Badgers as 22.5-chalk favorites versus Minnesota with a posted game total of 58-points. Getting the big picture: In Looking at this game I see a couple of interesting factors. I see Minnesota playing pretty good football, but losing close games, against pretty good football teams. It's against teams they should bury where they fall short. The Gophers should never lose to South Dakota State, an FCS (formerly D-1 AA) school, but they did in week-2. Two weeks later they get beat SU at home by Northern Illinois of the MAC. Against quality competition, the Golden Gophers have looked pretty good, in losing to Southern Cal (32-21) and Northwestern in week-5 (29-28). Minnesota covered the betting spread in both of those games.
One thing Wisconsin has done is win the games it's supposed to win. When faced with playing lower FCS school Austin Peay, they performed to perfection by hanging 70 on the Governors. However, against lower tier FBS competition, the Badgers haven't been real good. They failed to cover as 21-chalk favorites at UNLV in week-1 and only lost by 13 to woeful San Jose State in week-2 as -39 point favorites. The Badgers eeked out a one point SU victory in week-3 versus Arizona State.
So here's the trend; Minnesota performs well against good competition while the Badgers struggle versus bad FBS competition. I'm throwing out the 70-3 SU win over Austin Peay because its a non-lined game and AP is not a good program.
For Saturday's game, the trends tell me to bet the Golden Gophers getting +22.5 points; and I agree.
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