Vanderbilt at No. 19 Arkansas 2010 College Football Picks: The No. 19(BCS) Arkansas Razorbacks will be shooting for back to back conference wins when they host the Vanderbilt Commodores of the SEC East at Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville (7 PM ET, ESPN-GP). With only two conference losses, the Hogs are still in the SEC West battle but they need some help if they want to catch Auburn and Alabama. The Commodores are 2-5 this season with a 1-3 SEC mark.
BetUS.com lists the Razorbacks as 20-chalk favorites versus Vanderbilt with a posted total of 55 1/2. Commodores backers are getting +800 odds on the BetUS moneyline while Arkansas is giving -1400.The Commodores have developed a reputation for their stingy defense, led by defensive back Casey Hayward, who currently shares the NCAA lead with five interceptions. Hayward has picked off a pass in four straight games, the first in Vanderbilt football history to do so.
The Commodores defense will certainly get a good workout when they face the prolific Arkansas offense led by junior quarterback Ryan Mallett. Mallett leads the SEC and ranks ninth in the NCAA with 291.4 passing yards per game. His SEC-leading total of 56 completions of 15 yards or more is fourth in the nation. Knile Davis leads Arkansas with 470 rushing yards this season. Greg Childs is tied for second in the SEC with six touchdown receptions this season.
Vanderbilt lost a hard fought battle in Week-8, a 21-7 result against South Carolina on October 23. Vanderbilt failed to cover in that game as a 11 1/2-point underdog, while the 28 combined points took the game UNDER the total.
In their last action, Arkansas was a 38-24 winner at home against Mississippi. They covered the 10-point spread as favorites, while the combined 62 points scored covered for for OVER bettors.
Last week, teams ranked in the AP Top 25 went 13-2 straight up vs. unranked teams, and 11-4 vs. the Sportsbook.com pointspreads. So on the season, ranked teams are now 117-16 SU and 66-56 vs. the numbers when playing unranked teams.
Also last week, in the four games that matched two ranked teams, the higher-ranked squads went 3-1 both SU and ATS vs. their lower-ranked opponents. On the season, higher-ranked teams are now 18-9 straight up and 15-12 vs. the numbers when playing lower-ranked opponents.
Game Pick: Vandy has a very good defense but they haven't seen anything like what they will see tonight. I expect Mallett and the Hogs will score enough to cover the 20-point spread. I predict an outcome like Ark 42 – Vandy 17.
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