Navy vs. San Diego State 2010 Poinsettia Bowl Spreads Odds & Predictions: Please pardon the pun, but with all the flooding around San Diego, the Navy Midshipmen should feel right at home in water soaked Qualcomm Stadium when they play San Diego State in the San Diego Credit Unions Poinsettia Bowl on Thursday (8 pm ET, ESPN). All joking aside, this game will of sorts be a home game for each school, due to the heavy Navy presence in the area and of course the city being home to the Aztecs where Qualcomm Stadium serves as the schools home field.
The Aztecs are 3-chalk favorites at most offshore sports books with a 58 1/2 posted total. Navy backers are getting around +130 moneyline odds for a SU win while the Aztecs are giving approximately -152.
The U.S. Naval Academy, who plays as an independent, battled to a 9-3 overall record in 2010, that included a victory over Notre Dame. The Midshipmen are no strangers to post season bowl action as they participate for the eighth consecutive year.
San Diego State, a member of the Mountain West Conference, became bowl eligible for the first time since the 1998 season. Playing under head coach Brady Hoke, the Aztecs have really turned the program around, going from a 3-9 record in 2006, to an 8-4 mark in 2010.
Side betting on this game is pretty close with only 59 percent of early wagers falling on the favored Aztecs. Gamblers prefer backing Navy to win SU with 60 percent of early wagers backing the Middies. In totals betting, the UNDER (58 1/2) is the target of 58 percent of gamblers.
San Diego State went 5-1 SU on its home field in 2010. While technically, this isn't a home game for the Aztecs, in reality it is, because they are playing on their home field and will be dressing in their home dressing room. In home games the Aztecs covered the betting spread in 3-of-5 lined games.
In six games Navy played on the road, it covered the point spread in 4-of-6 games. Overall, the Midshipmen went 7-4 ATS in lined games while the total (Over/Under) split 4-4.
San Diego State and Navy each have pretty potent offenses, the Aztecs ranked 21st nationally, averaging 448 total yards per game while while the Midshipmen are ranked 38th, averaging 406 yards per game. The Aztecs have a more balanced offensive approach while Navy operates a triple-option run oriented attack, ranked 5th nationally averaging 288.92 yards on the ground.
Picking a bowl winner is not an exact science, but I feel Navy has a slight advantage based soley on the fact that they last played Dec. 11 in their rivalry game with Army. In contrast, its been 26 days since the Aztecs last laced them up on Nov. 27. I've always felt the team with the least rust plays best. Otherwise I would see this game evenly matched. Today I like Navy to cover +3 as the underdog.
