I find that betting college football can be difficult early in the season because it’s impossible to tell what teams will battle and what teams will not. As a handicapper the more information I can get on a team the better equipped I am at picking a play. When asked for advice about betting on college football my standard answer to people is two-fold. It’s good to know who is good at covering the spread and who really stinks. I am not talking about a team’s won-loss record but at a teams record against the spread (ATS).
So far in 2006, I have identified 10 teams who have covered the line all three weeks. To do that, the team must have played three “Division One” games that were listed on the Las Vegas board.
The following 10 are the NCAA Division-1A teams who have covered the spread in all three weeks of the 2006 season. Since schools listed in the top 25 seem to draw the most attention I will list them first.
Ohio State – The number-one ranked Buckeyes opened the season as 17.5- point favorites versus Northern Illinois easily outpacing the Huskies 35-12. In Week two Ohio State traveled to Texas as a three-point (+3) underdog and easily covered by winning outright 24-7. In week three the Buckeyes win the game 37-7 narrowly covering the -28.5 pt chalk against the Cincinnati Bearcats.
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Auburn – The third-ranked Tigers opened week one with a 40-14 blasting of Washington State easily covering the 14 -point spread. Auburn visited Mississippi State in week two as a heavy favorite (-21.5) winning by 34 in blanking the Bulldogs 34-0. The Tigers covered the three-point (-3.5) chalk by defeating LSU by a score of 7-3 covering the line by a half point on Saturday.
Louisville – The 12th ranked Cardinals have been prolific at putting up points with their high tempo offense and have easily covered the line all three weeks. Louisville was favored by 23.5 point going against Kentucky and covered by 7.5. The Cardinals won a laugher in week two by stomping the Temple Owls 62-0. The line for that game was an inflated –40. The Miami Hurricanes were expected to mount some challenge to Louisville on Saturday (Sept 16) but the Cardinals win 31-7, more than enough to cover the four-point (-4) line.
Seven non-ranked teams have gone 3-0 ATS including four mid-majors (non- BCS) schools. I feel it is especially important to be aware of the mid-majors record ATS because they are often heavy underdogs. If an underdog mid-major covers against a power school I am going to make a mental note of it and give that team extra consideration when it comes to choosing who I want to handicap the next Saturday. With 50 or so football games played every week it’s difficult to handicap all of them so I am selective as to what games I play.
Central Michigan – The Chippewa made a believer out of me when they hosted Boston College in week one. CMU was given an 11- point chalk and only needed seven losing to the Eagles 24-31. In week two the Chippewa traveled to the Big House at Ann Arbor getting 27 points. The Wolverines only won the game by 22. Following Akron’s upset victory at North Carolina State, The Zips traveled to CMU favored by one. The Chippewa won outright 24-21. This team has earned my attention.
Ball State – The Cardinals were terrible in 2005 and I didn’t give them much chance to compete well in 2006. Eastern Michigan came to Muncie to open week one and I thought Eastern Michigan would win the game outright in spite of being a five- point underdog. I was shocked to see Ball State win by 18. Eastern Michigan is a program whose star was on the rise in the MAC while the Cardinals weren’t expected to go anywhere. Then in week two, Big 10 member Indiana stole a one-point-win after coming in favored by 3.5. Ball State played its second Big 10 opponent in as many weeks last Saturday when they visited Purdue as a 17- point dog. Again, the Cardinals gave Purdue all they wanted only losing by 10 but covering the line.
East Carolina – The Pirates, coached by Chip Holtz, is a team on the rise. Holtz is a good coach who was very successful at UCONN prior to joining his fathers (Lou Holtz) staff at South Carolina in 1999 as offensive coordinator. I didn’t flinch when I played the Pirates in week one as they traveled to Navy as a 12- point underdog. ECU only lost the game by five. In week two, ECU lost by five for the second week in a row as they fall to UAB 12-17 but covered the 6.5- point line. The Pirates get their first win and another cover in week three as they defeat Memphis 35-20.
Wyoming – The Cowboys opened 2006 hosting Utah State by giving 11.5-points and easily covering as they win the game by a 31-point margin. Week two has Wyoming traveling to Virginia where they are eight point underdogs. The Cowboys get the cover only losing by one- point. The high-flying Boise State Broncos came to Laramie for a week three match-up making Wyoming an eight- point underdog the second week in a row. The Cowboys battled and held BSU to a seven -point win.
The following programs are Unranked BCS conference affiliated schools that have gone 3-0 ATS.
Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights should change their name to the Cover-Knights. These guys have been “A Cover Machine over the past few years. When the lines are posted on Sunday nights I look for their line first. Rutgers visited North Carolina in week one going to Chapel Hill as a –3.5-point dog. I don’t know who in Las Vegas settled that line. Maybe they haven’t followed college football in the past three years. The Scarlet Knights won the game straight up 21-16. In week two the odds-makers showed Rutgers a little respect but not enough. Favored by 10.5, the Scarlet Knights blanked Illinois 33-0. By week three the boys in Las Vegas finally woke up and installed Rutgers as a 16.5-point favorite. The Scarlet Knights won the game by 17 keeping their streak alive.
Syracuse – Any team that plays decent defense can keep itself in a game and that’s how I see the Orange. In weeks one and two they lacked in offense but battled defensively losing to Wake Forest as a 14- point dog 10-20 and in week two losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes 13-20 as a 15 point underdog. The Orange got absolutely no respect from Las Vegas as they traveled to Illinois and were installed as a 3.5-point dog. Syracuse responded by winning straight up 31-21.
Vanderbilt – Have you heard the cliché’, they can’t win for losing? In the case of Vanderbilt, that’s an accurate statement. The Commodores are 0-3 straight up but 3-0 ATS. In Vanderbilt’s last two ballgames they lost straight up by a combined total of five points; three to Alabama in Tuscaloosa and two to Arkansas at home. Vanderbilt covered in its game against Michigan getting 26 points and losing by 20 in Ann Arbor. The Michigan game is a perfect example as a game that was much closer than it looked. Vanderbilt gave the Wolverines fits for three quarters but penalties and turnovers killed any chances of pulling off an upset. Vanderbilt is a good football team and will upset somebody big this year.
Consistency is a player’s friend. That is why we pay so much attention to trends. I am prone to wager against a team that fails to cover week after week as I am to wager on a team that covers every week. The only favorites I have are consistent programs good or bad. I am not clairvoyant so trends are a tool I depend on.
