Point Spreads - NCAA, Final Four, College Basketball, NBA, MLB, World Series, NFL, College Football, BCS & Super Bowl Point Spreads

Finally, we have a match-up in the BCS National Championship Game to be played in Glendale, Arizona on January 8. There will be no more speculation. It was decided on the football field Saturday (Dec. 2) when the Florida Gators defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 38-28 in the SEC championship game and looked good enough to convince human voters to jump the Gators over the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines in the USA-Today Poll also known as the Coaches Poll therefore influencing the BCS computer poll to place the Gators opposite the Buckeyes. Within moments after the bids were extended odds-makers had the early betting lines up for all to see. And from a gamblers perspective, it’s never too early to start handicapping the game.

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Ohio State was installed the favorite in its match-up with Florida by a -8 point chalk in Las Vegas and -7 ½ offshore with totals in Vegas and Offshore at 48 and 48 ½ respectively. When I first looked at this line the first thought that came into my head was UNDER. Both Ohio State and Florida have big names on their respective offenses’ but these teams are playing in the national championship game equally on the merits of their defenses. In 9-of-12 games played by Ohio State this season the UNDER cashed. Defense was dominant in games Florida was involved in with the UNDER cashing in 8 of 12 regular season games. The championship game against Arkansas cashed for the OVER but both sides got cheap points as a result of their opponent’s mistakes.

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Florida did not do its backers any favors during the regular season in covering the betting line falling short against the spread (ATS) in 8-of-10 games. Abysmal is the best word to describe it. Gamblers would have been better served to bet against the Gators ATS in every game. Of the eight conference (SEC) games on Florida’s schedule it managed to cover the line in one game and ironically it was the only game where the Gators were the underdog +1 at home to LSU. Those thinking about playing Ohio State and giving the eight-points might need to consider that the only game where Florida was listed as the dog, the Gators bit and defeated the No. 4 LSU 23-10 SU in the Swamp and covered ATS.

While Florida had several narrow escapes SU and ATS, Ohio State was the golden child of the betting board. Or to be more succinct, the Buckeyes were a covering monster managing 9-of-12 wins ATS and 12-0 SU.

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The big game is almost five weeks away and many things can happen that can influence the line but this is how I see it if I were to bet today. I would take the highest total I can find and bet the UNDER. I can almost guarantee the total will drop a few points in the next few weeks. I would be shocked if the total 48-48 ½ went up. Get it today while you can. Also take Florida +8. The Gators will be ready for this game and will present a look unseen to Ohio State. The game speed will be a factor and speed is one thing the Gators have plenty of. 

One last thought about this match-up and that has to do with the respective leagues these schools play in. The Big 10 was a 3-horse race. Once you get past Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin there isn’t much left but some mediocre competition. On the other hand, Florida had what was perhaps the most difficult schedule in the nation. To get to the championship game the Gators had to battle five top ten teams. Of the 13 teams Florida has played this season, 10 are going to bowl games.

 Take Florida +8 (7 ½ offshore) and play the UNDER 48 (48 ½ offshore).

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