The Arizona State University Sun Devils football team (7-5) is a program in transition with two camps, the incoming and outgoing. The outgoing, coached by Dirk Koetter plays its final game today in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl against the University of Hawaii Warriors (10-3) kicking off at 8 p.m. (EST) from Honolulu’s Aloha Stadium and televised by ESPN. The incoming, led by new hire Dennis Erickson, is back in Tempe putting together the remainder of its coaching staff. The Warriors have been installed a minus 7-point favorite at most offshore and Las Vegas sports-books with a total of 71 ½.
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My job in handicapping any game is to get my finger on its pulse before kickoff. Every bowl game takes on a life of its own but this one has a twist. Koetter was fired following the regular season where his Sun Devils went 7-5 and qualified for a bowl game. Koetter didn’t lose his job because ASU had a winning record and qualified for a bowl game. Koetter was fired because the Sun Devils achieved minimal success during his tenure and never joined the elite of the Pacific-10 Conference.
Expectations for the Sun Devils are always lofty but were in the stratosphere entering the 2006 football season. The Sun Devils went 7-5 in 2005 and ended the season on a high note with a 45-40 win over Rutgers in the Insight Bowl. ASU returned the nucleus of its 2005 team including sophomore quarterback Rudy Carpenter, sophomore running back Keegan Herring and junior tight end Zach Miller. The defense also returned nine-seniors under second year defensive coordinator Bill Miller. ASU was expected to be a player in the chase for a conference championship. Anything short of these expectations could result in negative consequences for the Koetter led program.
ASU won its first three football games of 2006 over Div. 1AA member Northern Arizona, Nevada and Colorado but the program quickly crumbled as a result of lopsided losses to California 21-49, Oregon 13-48 and a single touchdown loss to Southern California 21-28. The Sun Devils then lose to Oregon State and UCLA before picking up a win over rival Arizona to finish the regular season. The fate of Koetter and his staff was established and any win over the rival Wildcats would not be enough to save the current program. Koetter and his staff were doomed however was allowed to hang around and coach the team in its final game, the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl.
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Hawaii, the WAC runner-up, plays the wide-open run-and-shoot offense favored by head coach June Jones. Junior quarterback Colt Brennan runs that offense to perfection and has gained national recognition along the way. Brennan leads the nation in six statistical categories, including total offense (410.8), touchdown passes (53), passing efficiency (182.8), points responsible for (26.8), completion percentage, 71.1 % and total passing yards (4,990).
The Warrior defense has been overshadowed by the high-powered Warrior offense. The defense has allowed a mere 79 points and forced 11 turnovers which led to eight touchdowns in the last five games. Defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville’s group has allowed 13-or-less points in four games this season, including a season-low nine against Eastern Illinois and 10 against Idaho and Utah State. The Warrior defense ranks 53rd nationally in rushing defense.
When betting this game the player needs to take into account the perils of the Arizona State program but at the same time don’t underestimate the talent the Sun Devils display on their team. ASU plays in the Pacific-10 while Hawaii plays in the WAC, a league top-heavy with the likes of Boise State and Nevada but is weak on the bottom end with Utah State, Idaho, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech. It’s the lower end teams where Hawaii feasts inflating the win portion of its schedule. In games against teams from BCS conferences this year, the Warriors went 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. The OVER cashed in 9-of-12 games the Warriors played.
Arizona State was pretty good ATS covering in 7-of-11 betting board listed games including cashing as a +19-point home underdog to Southern Cal. The Sun Devils fared well against inferior talented teams beating up on Nevada, Stanford, Colorado and Arizona.
Hawaii can be difficult to beat at home but ASU has the talent to whip the Warriors at any location. ASU would probably be favored in this game if the coaching situation was more stable. I expect ASU to step up and cover the +7 line and perhaps win the game SU. Don’t expect the 71 ½ -point total to hold up. The point-count could soar in this game.
