The University of Arkansas Razorbacks football team will experience something new on Saturday when they travel to Starkville for a battle with the Mississippi State University Bulldogs at Scott Stadium. The new thing is a top five ranking (AP), a ranking the Hogs haven’t seen since Lou Holtz was the coach in 1982. With a win over the Bulldogs, Arkansas will get its ticket punched to the Dec.2nd SEC Championship game to play the No.3 Florida Gators and a chance to advance its National Championship hopes.
The Razorbacks are coming into the game as double-digit favorites (-14) and take to the road having covered their last five outings ATS and won eight in a row straight up.
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Arkansas expects to be challenged by the Bulldogs, a team that had a bye last week (Nov 11) after experiencing one of the programs biggest wins on the road at Alabama Nov 4. The Bama win was MSU’s second cover in a row as a double-digit underdog. The bye week gave MSU players time to get over some bumps and bruises and a chance to form a game-plan intended to stop or at least slow down Arkansas offense led by Heisman Trophy candidate running back Darren McFadden and versatile wide receiver Marcus Monk.
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Mississippi State held Alabama to just 16 points (only nine by the defense), the fourth time in 10 games this season that MSU allowed its opposition 17 points or less. State gave up 17 points or fewer five times in 11 games a year ago. State's defense allowed Alabama only 101 yards rushing, and has now permitted just 362 yards on the ground on 124 carries (2.9 yards per rush) over the past four weeks. It was the eighth time in 10 games the Bulldog defense had held its opponent to less than 111 yards rushing in a game. The Bulldogs rank seventh in rush defense in the Southeastern Conference, allowing just 119.9 yards per game on the ground.
The Bulldogs solid run defense numbers will likely take a hit going against McFadden. The sophomore back has reeled off 1,210 yards rushing this season, which is more yardage than 34 percent of Division 1-A teams. Mississippi State has rushed less than McFadden as a team. To make matters worse for the Bulldogs, the Arkansas rushing attack is a two-headed monster. McFadden shares the backfield with fellow sophomore Felix Jones
Jones has three 100-yard rushing games this season with 106 yards vs. Southeast Missouri State, 104 yards at then-No. 2 Auburn and a career-high 141 yards vs. UL-Monroe. Jones ranks fourth in the SEC and 42nd nationally in rushing with 78.63 yards per game… He has a career-best 786 yards rushing on just 101 carries…Jones' 7.78 yards per carry average leads the SEC and ranks third in the country.
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MSU has improved as a team and does not resemble the rag-tag bunch that started the season. The Bulldogs will come out with plenty of energy hoping to end the Hogs dominance but it won’t be enough. Arkansas should easily cover the –14-point line for its sixth straight cover. Those bettors who see this as a potential trap game can forget it. Arkansas clinches a SEC Western Division championship with a win at Starkville so no one is looking forward to the LSU game on Nov 24th.
