American Idol Elimination: Oddsmakers predict Lakisha to be voted off, Sanjaya safe again

Wednesday, 11 April 2007

At first I was surprised when I saw that oddsmakers are predicting Lakisha Jones will be eliminated from American Idol based on Tuesday night’s performance. Predicting who will get the heave-ho on American Idol from week to week has become somewhat tricky these past weeks. Last week several of the major entertainment outlets such as Variety, LA Times, MTV News, TV Guide and Access Hollywood were predicting either Phil Stacey or Haley Scarnato would be voted off the show while oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com said Gina Glocksen would get the axe. And sure enough, the oddsmakers were correct in their prediction, as Glocksen was sent packing.

Jones, whom has been at or near the top in talent and popularity since the competition was culled down to 24 contestants a month ago, is expected by Bookmaker.com to be sent packing tonight and is backing it up with a -500 chalk. That means if you bet $500 on Jones to be eliminated you would only win $100. No other contestant is anywhere close to that figure with the second most likely to be eliminated is Jordin Sparks (another shocker) at +285 ($100 for $285).

Lakisha performed Miami Sound Machine’s ‘Conga’ and the performance wasn’t her best. She admitted the song was a bit out of her comfort zone but her vocals were pretty good. If anything hurt her it would have been her dancing to the Latin beat which didn’t suit her well.

Jordin had difficulty in getting through Gloria Estefan’s ‘The Rhythm Is Gonna Get You’ but in spite of the less than appealing revue, I don’t expect her to be eliminated.

Over the past month, I have predicted either Phil Stacey or Haley Scarnato to be sent home and I have been wrong each time. Neither contestant (as usual) dazzled the judges on Latin night but oddsmakers expect them to stick around at least another week. Scarnato at +600 odds is the third least likely to be eliminated followed by Stacey at +650.

“It wasn’t horrible,” Simon Cowell says to Sanjaya Malakar after the mustachioed lad sang his rendition of Caetano AVeloso’s ‘Busame Mucho’on Tuesday night’s American Idol. Of course saying it wasn’t horrible isn’t saying it was great either; however credited with being the smartest of the contestants by Randy Jackson, Sanjaya didn’t hurt himself either. Oddsmakers have put a +700 price tag on his elimination chances. In other words, Sanjaya isn’t going anywhere.

Chris Richardson was praised by the judges after performing his rendition of Santana’s ‘Smooth’. Even Simon Cowell said it was a good performance and Paula Abdul termed it as “Hot”. Oddsmakers must agree moving Richardson into the top three at +1200 odds that he will stick around another week.

Blake Lewis at +4500 has moved into the high rent district with Melinda Doolittle (+6600) as the two contestants most likely to win American Idol.

Lewis performed ‘I Need to Know’ by Marc Anthony and he nailed it. Simon said it was the best performance of the night and praised Lewis for his song choice.

Doolittle performed ‘Sway’ while wearing a sultry black dress and looking pretty sexy. Randy thought Melinda was great but Simon disagreed comparing the performance to a lounge act and very cabaret.

If you want to bet on tonight’s elimination I think Phil Stacey offers the best value at +650.