We can be assured of three things when American Idol airs Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Jennifer Lopez, this weeks mentor, will offer advice and perform on Wednesday’s elimination show. Melinda Doolittle will bring tears to the eyes of the audience and leave judges Randy, Paula and Simon speechless over her brilliant voice and Sanjaya Malakar will leave the judges speechless too, but for a completely different reason. 

While dining with friends over the weekend, the subject of American Idol came up and someone said, “I think Sanjaya might make the top five.” I responded saying, “Sanjaya is already in the top five.” That’s right, for those of you who think young Malakar is hanging around the bottom of the pack, you better do your homework. According to oddsmakers at offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.com, Malakar is the fourth candidate least likely to be eliminated. What is unique to Malakar, his staying power has nothing to do with his talent level while the other contestant’s talent has everything to do with how they stand in the eyes of voters. 

So far, one thing seems to be a constant. America loves Melinda Doolittle, the backup singer from the Nashville suburb of Brentwood, Tenn. There is no close second to Doolittle in the eyes of oddsmakers whom have her chalked in as a -130 favorite to become the next American Idol and +8000 favorite contestant not to be eliminated. These odds are based on a money line format. That means if you win a $100 by betting on Doolittle, the bet would have cost you $130. If you think she gets eliminated from Tuesday’s performance and are correct, you will win $8K on a $100 bet.

 
Let me offer you some advice; Doolittle is a very good value at -130. I have been in the handicapping business a long time and seldom do I tell someone a bet is a lock but this is one instance I think it is. 

Jordin Sparks, the 17 year old beauty from Glendale, Arizona, is probably number two based on the numbers. If you think Sparks will win American Idol and want to back up your thoughts with cash, a $100 bet will bring you $315 (+315) if she wins. If you think she will be eliminated this week and put $100 down, you will win $2500 (+2500) if she is voted off the show. 

Blake Lewis has steadily climbed out of the crowd into the top four group of favorites. The 25 year old beatboxer from Redmond, Wash., has the third best odds at winning at +415 and is also third least likely to be eliminated this week based on the +1500 odds. 

At one time Lakisha Jones might have been the top contestant but has slipped to the fourth least likely candidate to win American Idol at +900 odds followed by Sanjaya at +1500. There is a strange twist to how oddsmakers rate these two contestants. The odds of Sanjaya being eliminated (+850) this week are better than Lakisha who oddsmakers have the best of the bottom three at +385. Chris Richardson also has a better chance of surviving this week’s show than Jones with +400 odds; however his chances of winning American Idol are less at +2500. 

At Point-Spreads.com we expect Haley Scarnato (+165) or Philip Stacey (+125) to be sent home after Tuesday’s performance. The pair has routinely been in the bottom three but for one reason or other has managed to survive. Both contestants have better talent than Sanjaya but as Simon says, “Sanjaya is in his own world.”

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