The 79th Academy Awards: Handicapping the Best Pitcture Nominations

Written by Haim Rosenberg

Wednesday, 24 January 2007

On February 25th we will all be glued to our television sets to watch Hollywood honor itself by handing out the golden statuettes named Oscar at the 79th Academy Awards. And like every year the oddsmakers offshore and in Las Vegas will handicap every film, actor or category possible for the public to wager on.

I am by no means a movie critic, but I love movies and enjoy betting on them come awards time. It takes a special skill to wager on films and especially to be successful at it. Also take note that what looks good today might not look so good a month from now.

Keep your ear to the ground and listen to the chatter. We have a month to prepare so let’s start now. Bet on the Academy Awards at Bodog.com and receive instant cash bonuses!

On Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced this year’s nominations and as every year there are some surprises. Perhaps the biggest shocker is the snubbing of “Dream Girls” from the best picture category, especially after the Broadway film version of the same name had picked up eight other nominations. Equally as surprising is the inclusion of “Little Miss Sunshine” into the best picture category. Don’t get me wrong, Sunshine was a nice little comedy but I think it falls short of best picture quality.

I can’t dwell on what should have been nominated for this or shouldn’t have been nominated for that. I will leave that chatter for the barber shop or beauty parlor, but what I want to do over the next month is discuss the major nominations and who has the better chance of winning. Today I will start with the Best Picture category and the odds placed on the film to win. And of course I will throw in a few comments along the way.

All the odds I will be using are provided by mega sportsbook Bodog.com.

“Babel”, produced and directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu , is a movie that has a lot of momentum right now coming off winning the Best Drama Golden Globe Award and could be a great value at 14/5 odds. “Babel” is my pick to walk off with the award in a slight upset.

“The Departed”, the Martin Scorsese directed gangster flick is the favorite to win at 2/3 odds. This movie was upset by “Babel” in the Golden Globes. The movie was released in September and has run its course at the theaters. If you haven’t seen the film, it is expected to be re-released to theaters in the next few days.

“Letters from Iwo Jima, directed by Clint Eastwood, is sitting there at 7/1 odds. This film depicts the battle Iwo Jima Island from the Japanese perspective. Letters is classified as a foreign language film and is run with English subtitles. I have not seen the film but plan to see it in the next few days.

“The Queen”, is a movie based on the Royal’s response to the death of Princess Dianna over a few weeks time following her death. This is a fascinating movie dramatically depicting what went on behind the scenes following the Dianna tragedy and is one of my favorite movies of the year but I don’t think it is best picture quality and at 10/1 odds, neither do the oddsmakers.

“Little Miss Sunshine”, is a blast to watch but don’t waste your money betting on this film at 14/5 odds. It might have a chance as a best screen play but not best picture. Sunshine is a film about the coming together of a dysfunctional family while on a road trip.