2010 NFL Playoff Picks: The NFL Playoffs are set to kickoff this weekend, making it time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. That is not always an easy task in the NFL postseason, which has featured numerous upsets in recent years. However, according to the oddsmakers at SBGglobal.com, the Colts are the 2010 NFL Playoff Picks favorite to win the Super Bowl at +300 moneyline odds while the New York Jets are viewed as the biggest longshot at +4000 odds.
So, what kind of chance do the Colts have as the top seed in the AFC and the odds on favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy?
A decent one based upon recent history, but their road is also wrought with peril. A look inside the numbers reveals both to be true. Since 2001 at least one of the top four seeds has reached the conference championship game 18 times and the Super Bowl 11 times. Of those 11 teams to make it to the championship contest, five have succeeded in bringing home the Lombardi (New England 2001, New England 2003, Tampa Bay 2002, New England 2004, Pittsburgh 2008).
How about the Jets as a Wild Card team and huge moneyline underdog? Their chances are not as bad as one would think, especially given the past decades results. Teams that have played during the Wild Card weekend have reached the conference championship game 14 times and the Super Bowl five times (Carolina 2003, Pittsburgh 2005, Indianapolis 2006, New York Giants 2007, Arizona 2008). Of those five teams to make an appearance in the Super Bowl, three have won it (Pittsburgh 2005, Indianapolis 2006, New York Giants 2007).
Just looking at the math, without any evaluation of the current playoff squads strengths and weaknesses and/or any match up related issues, gives a slight edge to the top seeds. For example, 56 percent of the time (32 teams/18 championship game appearances) a top four seed has reached the conference championship game over the past eight years while just 22 percent (64 teams/14 championship game appearances) of the Wild Card game participants have made it to the conference championship. The top four seeds have reached the Super Bowl 34 percent of the time compared to just eight percent of the time for Wild Card game participants. The Super Bowl winner has been a top four seed 63 percent of the time compared to 37 percent for Wild Card game combatants.
SBGglobal.com 2010 NFL Playoff Picks:
Indianapolis Colts +300
San Diego Chargers +350
New Orleans Saints +390
Minnesota Vikings +650
Dallas Cowboys +1000
New England Patriots +1100
Philadelphia Eagles +1600
Green Bay Packers +2100
Arizona Cardinals +2200
Baltimore Ravens +2800
Cincinnati Bengals +3500
New York Jets +4000
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