The New England Patriots get set to host the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Divisional Round, Saturday Jan 11th, as the Colts try to be the first team to break the Patriots 8-0 home record. The Colts rallied from a four-TD deficit to an historic 45-44 comeback victory over the Kansas City Chiefs during wildcard weekend. The comeback was the second-largest in NFL playoff history. The Colts and Patriots last met in Week 11 of the 2012 season with the hometown Patriots winning 59-24. NFL oddsmakers have the hometown Patriots as -7.5 point favorites over the Colts with the total set at 47.5 points. The Patriots are absolutely beatable and the Colts can win this game – it won’t be easy, but they can. Be sure to get your Colts vs Patriots prediction in early before kick-off.
The Colts (12-5, 5-3 V) got a stunning come-from-behind 45-44 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on wildcard weekend. QB Andrew Luck threw four second-half touchdown passes and scored on a fumble recovery. RB Donald Brown had just 15 total touches, but he finished the game with 102 yards and two touchdowns with more than one big play. The teams’ 1,049 combined total yards set an NFL postseason record, and their 89 combined points is third on the all-time list.
During the regular season this year, Brown had just 102 carries but a career-high 27 receptions. He finished the season with 751 total yards, a 5.3 average per rush and 7.9 average per reception. He had a career-high eight total touchdowns, 10 if you include his first postseason game, and four plays of at least 20 yards.
There’s no telling which Colts defense will show up. After holding their final three regular-season opponents to 10 points or less, they were steamrolled by an injury-depleted Chiefs offense during Wild Card Weekend. They will need more than strip-sack master Robert Mathis to win in New England.
The Patriots had little issue confusing the QB as a rookie last season, picking him off three times during a 59-24 win, but things have changed. Last year, Luck completed 54.1 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. This year, he’s completed 60.2 percent with 23 and nine.
Andrew Luck won’t feel sorry for the Pats over their injuries. Since the start of the season, he’s lost his top running back (Ahmad Bradshaw), tight end (Dwayne Allen) and wide receiver (Reggie Wayne) to injured reserve. He still rolled up 45 points and 536 yards while growing his legend as the best young comeback artist the NFL has seen.
The Patriots (12-4, 8-0 H) have to be focused on the task at hand, and that means finding a way to stop Andrew Luck and top receiver T.Y. Hilton. From Belichick’s vantage point, that won’t be easy. The challenge of staying upright will be paramount for Brady, with Robert Mathis on the other side. Mathis had 19.5 sacks in the regular season, and has sacked Brady five times in seven games.
“And like I said, it all starts with Robert Mathis and being the defensive player of the year, basically, 19.5 sacks, he kind of wreaks a lot of havoc,” Brady said. “We’ve got to be able to figure out how to slow him down and then we’ve got to be really balanced on offense like we’ve been. We’ve got to run it, and when we throw, we’ve got to throw it good.”
RB LeGarrette Blount was second only to Ryan Mathews in rushing yards over the final three games of the regular season. He’s become the face of a Patriots team that has lost a handful of its best players to injuries.
Recent Trends to Consider and NFL Points Spreads:
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots
When: Saturday Jan 11@8:15 PM ET
Pick: Patriots -7.5
The Bottom Line: If the Patriots can get out to an early lead, a one-dimensional Colts team won’t be able to keep up. With the ineffective Trent Richardson playing, this matchup will mask any issues New England has with defending the run. We recommend you signup with Carbonsports to receive a 10% signup bonus heading into the Colts vs Patriots tilt.