If you’re a fan of smash-mouth football, and let’s face it, most of us are, chances are this week’s AFC championship will game will serve up a healthy dish of it. And if you’re an “Over” bettor, believe it or not, this could be a good spot for you as well. As I’m sure you all know, the Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting their bitter division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Steelers opened at -5.5 and were quickly bet up to -6 where they sit now at Sportsbook.com. The Total is holding steady at 34.5.
Conventional wisdom would dictate a wager on the Under, after all the Steelers and Ravens ranked first and third respectively when it came to fewest points allowed in the regular season and although Pittsburgh gave up 24 points in its 35-24 playoff victory against the Chargers, Baltimore has allowed an average of 9.5 points against in the postseason and has gone Under in both of its playoff contests.
But if you look closer at head-to-head match-ups between the Ravens and Steelers, they tell a bit of a different tale. Dating back to 2002, Baltimore’s last eight visits to Pittsburgh have resulted in 7 Overs and 1 Under. Adding to the “Over” trend is the last four meetings in Pittsburgh between these two have resulted in “Over” bettors cashing in four straight. Since the start of the 2007 regular season, the Ravens have a record of 8 Overs and 4 Unders the last 12 times they have been an underdog of 6 points or less.
In the last 20 contests where the Steelers have been favored by 6-points or less, the Over/Under has gone 14-6. And finally, the Ravens have posted a mark of 13 Overs, 6 Unders and 1 push in their most recent 20 divisional match-ups. However, in talking with Sportsbook.com about betting trends, as of Thursday morning they were reporting a little over 60% of the betting action coming in on the “Under” 34.5 side. Not surprising when you look at how the two defenses are supposed to dominate this match-up.
When it comes to betting on the side, the Ravens have an edge, covering the point spread in six of the last eight meetings (6-2 ATS) vs. the Steelers overall. They are 3-1 in their last four trips to Pittsburgh as well.
At Sportsbook.com, NFL bettors feel like the Steelers are going to be able to handle covering the 6-points, as 70% of the side action has come in on the Steelers. This will be the third meeting of the season between these two divisional rivals and so far, the Ravens have a big doughnut in the win column, as they’ve failed to beat the Steelers 9although they did cover the spread in one of the match-ups). Can Pittsburgh run the table vs. the Ravens and make it a perfect 3-0 this season…and can they cover the spread if they do win? This will be a great game…don’t miss it.
