The San Diego Chargers are approaching the most important game in recent franchise history as well as the most important of head coach Norv Turner’s career. Turner has his team peaking at the right time, but there is a problem, that being the injury bug has hit on the offensive side of the ball and that has plenty to do with why the Chargers are +14 point road underdogs.
According to online sports wagering giant Bodog (Bodoglife.com), the New England Patriots are 14-point favorites ATS over the San Diego Chargers with a 47 ½ total.
Quarterback Philip Rivers did not participate in practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to knee problems. All-Pro Tight End Antonio Gates, nursing a toe injury, also did not participate in either the Wednesday or Thursday practices. The good news is MVP running back LaDanian Tomlinson’s knee felt good enough for him to return to full participation in Thursday’s practice after sitting out on Wednesday.
Fortunately the Chargers are probably in the AFC Championship game because of their defense more so than their offense. Looking at the statistics, the Chargers defense has only allowed one team to eclipse 20 points over the last eight games, and over the same period is only allowing 13 points per game.
Through the first 10 games of the season, the Patriots were playing like a well tuned machine. People were beginning to wonder if they were human. However, like anything, the competition started to make needed adjustments. These adjustments haven’t had any effect in wins or losses but it has shown up in the large point-spreads gamblers were seeing. Instead of New England being a sure-thing for a cover ATS, they became not so reliable.
Opposing defensive coordinators have figured out how to take away the deep threat, cutting the Patriots point production from 41.4 ppg down to a manageable 30.4 ppg over the last seven games.
For gamblers, these defensive adjustments are crucial in that New England’s record ATS looked like Jekyll and Hyde over the season. Over the first eight games the Patriots were invincible ATS covering all eight games. Then over the last eight games of the season the Patriots failed to cover ATS in 7-of-8 and the total went UNDER in 4-of-8 after going OVER in all eight previous games.
For the second week in a row the Chargers have a chance to take advantage of a team that looks like it peaked about mid-way through the season. While playing well enough to win all its games SU, New England is showing cracks in its armor.
The danger for gamblers taking the points and laying heavy money on the Chargers; will the injuries on offense cut down on any point production. The Chargers probably need to score 17 offensive points to have a chance ATS and +30 to have a shot at winning the game SU.
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