New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts 2010 AFC Championship Picks: The Indianapolis Colts will host the New York Jets for the second time this season, only this time there is a Super Bowl appearance riding on the outcome. The two star laden squads are set to kickoff the 2010 AFC Championship Game at 3:00pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium; the game will be broadcast live on CBS. Online sportsbook SBGglobal.com has the Colts listed as a heavy -7.5 against the spread home favorite in their 2010 AFC Championship Picks.
The New York Jets have been playing the role of spoiler, and with great success, going all the way back to their week 16 
meeting with the Colts in Indianapolis. The Jets ruined Indy's bid for a perfect season that day, with a second half starter pulling assist from Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell, and they have not lost since. New York's ever so obvious formula of sound defense and ball control offense has lassoed two road playoff wins, both as a dog, and put the franchise on the cusp of its first Super Bowl appearance since 1969, which, as fate would have it, came against the Baltimore Colts.
But can the Jets, winners of seven of their last eight, keep things rolling against the real Colts, the team they only played for a half back on December 27th? Well, the key for them doing so will be a minimal mistakes effort from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. New York has proven that it can hang with and beat any team in the league so long as Sanchez does not get careless with the football.
It is no secret that Rex Ryan will lean heavily on running backs Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones thus taking the burden off Sanchez while creating the potential for an effective play action passing game. Sanchez just needs to be sound when his number is called, unlike Joe Flacco in the Ravens Divisional round loss to the Colts last week.
On defense, the formula is just as obvious for the Jets. They need to pressure Peyton Manning and, if not sack him, at least throw off his timing. They were not able to do that in the last meeting as Manning completed 14-of-21 passes for 192 yards in a little over two quarters of play. The Jets had two sacks and two quarterback hits in the game, but those came against back up Curtis Painter in the second half.
The Colts, possessing an NFL best 15-2 record and the top seed in the AFC, come into this game with all the pressure sitting squarely on their shoulders. Luckily for Indianapolis, their captain is one of the best players to ever strap on a helmet and he has a wealth of experience in big games. However, Manning will need all of his skill to slide past Rex Ryan's crew of confident Jets.
The Colts first step toward beating New York, ironically, may be by taking the ball out of Manning's hands a little bit. Indy's ground game has been a mere decoy all season long (78.6 yards per game), but Caldwell should attempt to use it today, and more specifically between the tackles. The Colts extended sweep and off tackle rushing style will not have a great deal of success against the Jets speedy defense; however, a consistent effort up the middle might pay dividends. New York has a good run defense (100.6 rush yards per game allowed), but it not as effective as their pass defense. If Indy makes New York respect the run, than the Jets linebackers will not be as involved in pass coverage. With the linebackers sucked in, some underneath routes in the flats and over the middle should open up for Manning and his receivers to exploit.
Defensively the Colts must sell out against the run. Caldwell must put eight men in the box and dare Sanchez to beat them with the pass. If Sanchez is able to, more power to him, but over the course of four quarters the USC product is bound to make some mistakes if he is continually faced with third and long. Indy must do whatever it takes to create those situations by limiting the run on first and second down.
The line here indicates a belief on the part of the odds makers, as well as the betting public, that Sanchez is going to come crashing back to earth in a rather unceremonious fashion. It is the opinion of this writer that he will do enough to keep his team in the game, but not enough to win it. The Jets cover, but their Super Bowl run comes to an end.
2010 AFC Championship Picks: The Colts are 3-7 against the spread and 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games as a home favorite with a total between 37 and 41. The Jets are 7-3 against the spread and 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games as road underdog with a spread 4 and 7.5 and a total between 37 and 41.
SBGglobal.com New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts 2010 AFC Championship Picks:
New York Jets +7.5 (-110), Over 39.5 (-110), +290 (Moneyline)
Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (-110), Under 39.5 (-110), -350 (Monyeline)
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