It’s a crap shoot when it comes to handicapping the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contest, however; if you want to place a wager on who you think will become the top rookie, there are things you can do to increase your chances of winning. Online sports betting powerhouse Sportsbook.com is providing a betting opportunity on who will win the top offensive rookie prize for fanatics who will gamble on anything NFL.
The best rookie running back will usually win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Of 41 past rookie winners since the award’s inception in 1967, 31 were running backs. If you do the math, a running back has won the award about 76 percent of the time.
A good rule of thumb when it comes to handicapping individual awards be they NFL or NCAA; the top player to win college football’s highest individual award, the Heisman Trophy, will usually be a quarterback while the top NFL offensive rookie will almost always be a running back. Occasionally there are exceptions as was the case in 2004 and 2006 when quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Young won and Anquan Boldin took the award as a wide receiver in 2003. All the rest were running backs.
You might ask the question, why do running backs dominate the award when quarterback is the most important position on the football field? The answer is it takes longer for an NFL quarterback to develop regardless of how great he might have been in college. A running back, on the other hand, doesn’t have to run his offense. He just needs to stay healthy and execute his plays when called upon. It also helps if he is in an offense that relies heavily on the running game.
A quarterback has a good chance of winning the award if he inherits a situation where he is stepping into the starting job from the beginning and is successful. No coach in his right mind wants to hand the reigns of his to a rookie quarterback if he doesn’t have to.
Looking at the 2008 NFL draft, if any quarterback has a chance to win “Rookie of the Year” it would be Matt Ryan who could very well step in as the starter immediately for the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan is installed at 10-1 odds to win the award which is best of the rookie quarterbacks.
Sportsbook.com has installed Darren McFadden of the Oakland Raiders, at 3-1 odds, the favorite to win the award in 2008-09. The former Arkansas runner will have competition including his former backfield mate for the Razorbacks in Felix Jones (Dallas) and former Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall, both at 8-1odds.
Odds to win the 2008-09 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (Sportsbook.com)
Chad Henne 25-1
Darrren McFadden 3-1
DeSean Jackson 20-1
Devin Thomas 20-1
Donnie Avery 30-1
Felix Jones 8-1
Jamaal Charles 25-1
James Hardy 20-1
Joe Flacco 20-1
Kevin Smith 8-1
Limas Sweed 25-1
Matt Forte 10-1
Matt Ryan 10-1
Rashard Mendenhall 8-1
Ray Rice 25-1
Any Other Player 7-2
