The undefeated Denver Broncos welcome the New England Patriots, Sunday Oct 11, as the Patriots try for their third straight win. The Broncos have won five of the past seven meetings, but the Pats killed them 41-7 last meeting. NFL oddsmakers at Sportsbetting.com have the Patriots as -3 road road favs over the Broncos with the over/under set at 41.5 points . Be sure to get your NFL Week 5 Picks: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos in now at Sportsbetting.com
The Patriots (3-1) beat Baltimore 27-21 at home in Week 4 and sit second in the AFC East. QB Tom Brady made 21 of 32 passes for 258 yards with one TD, overall he’s thrown for 1,129 yards with four TD passes and two interceptions. Their top RB Fred Taylor had seven carries for 25 yards, while RB Sammy Morris and Tom Brady each ran in a TD. Their top TE Benjamin Watson made two catches for 51 yards, while WR Randy Moss added a TD. The Pats generated 83 yards rushing and 234 yards in the air as Tom Brady connected with eight of nine receivers who finished with double-digit yards. With Wes Welker out in Weeks 2 and 3, Moss shifted from his normal role of working on a lot of deep routes and ran a lot of underneath patterns. The result was 14 receptions, but for only 140 yards (a 10-yard per catch average). Now with Welker back, Moss can go back to getting downfield and giving Tom Brady a home run threat. It might be tough as the Broncos defense is ranked third against the pass and fifth against the rush . With a still-developing, young defense, New England has turned to a much more aggressive scheme this season. The Patriots are blitzing more often and leaving their cornerbacks in a lot more man coverage. Since 2006, Brady is 10-0 in October.
The Broncos (4-0) beat Dallas 17-10 at home in Week 4 and sit atop the AFC West. QB Kyle Orton made 20 of 29 passes for 243 yards with two TD passes, overall he’s thrown for 906 yards with five TD passes and no interceptions. Their top RB Knowshon Moreno had 14 carries for 65 yards and two catches for 11 yards with a TD. WR Brandon Marshall made four catches for 91 yards with a TD. The Broncos generated 116 yards rushing and 221 yards in the air as Kyle Orton connected with six of seven receivers who finished with double-digit yards. The Broncos WR Brandon Marshall appears to have mended fences with coach Josh McDaniels and he possesses the kind of athleticism that could burn the Patriots if they get caught blitzing and he gets single covered. If the ground game struggles against New England's 11th-ranked rushing defense, the Broncos may need Marshall to break a long touchdown the way he did last week against Dallas. Broncos QB Kyle Orton is 25-12 as a starter and RB Knowshon Moreno leads all rookies with 249 yards rushing.
Recent Trends to Consider:
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Denver.
- Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
- Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
When: Sun, Oct 11, 2009 4:15 PM ET
Line: BetUS.com
Pick: Broncos +3
Point-Spreads.com NFL Week 5 Picks: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
The Bottom Line: The Broncos are juiced to be 4-0 and they aren’t going to lose at home. Be sure to get your NFL Week 5 Picks: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos in now at Sportsbetting.com and Cash in with sign-up bonuses, weekly reload bonuses and free payouts at SPORTSBETTING.com, where betting is safe, secure and easy.
