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NFL Picks Week 6

by Scott Burgess on Thursday, October 10th, 2013

Kicking off Week 6 will be the Chicago Bears hosting the winless NY Giants, on Thursday night. The Bears have struggled dropping two straight and going up against a winless Giants team, is the perfect remedy.  Other big news is the return of the Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski to help the Pats offense get back to what they do best, scoring! But, they face a steep uphill battle against the perfect 5-0 Saints, who are playing away from home. The Eagles Michael Vick is out and Nick Foles is in. Is this really news considering they play the Buccaneers, who will also have a new quarterback at the helm?  Below are NFL Point Spreads, Recent Trends and more in my NFL Picks for Week 6.

tom-brady-and-gronkBYE WEEK:  Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins

Thursday, October 10@8:25 PM ET
N.Y. Giants at Chicago (-9.5) (O/U-45.5) PICK: Bears -9.5
The Giants are an absolute mess right now. The offensive line looks old and the defense has a hard time covering anyone. The Bears defense leads the league in takeaways and scoring. Look for Manning to add to his many interceptions. Bears win big at home.

Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Over is 6-0 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Sunday, October 13@1:00 PM ET
Green Bay (-1) at Baltimore (O/U-48) PICK: Packers -1
Not having Clay Matthews (thumb) is obviously a big deal, but both Nick Perry and Mike Neal are coming off career-best games. The Ravens also aren’t good enough running the football to really make Matthews’ absence hurt.

Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 6.
Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (0) (O/U-45.5) PICK: Eagles
Contrary to popular belief, Nick Foles can run the Chip Kelly offense. He’ll win this uninspiring matchup of young quarterbacks and get the Eagles a second consecutive win.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Buccaneers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 6.
Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Pittsburgh (-1) at N.Y. Jets (O/U-41.5) PICK: Jets +1
The Jets defense is for real, and Geno Smith is progressing nicely week in and week out. Pittsburgh has too many problems on the offensive side of the ball. This, in turn, has hindered its ability to play consistent football.

Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games following a S.U. win.

Carolina at Minnesota (-1) (O/U-43.5) PICK: Panthers +1
The difference between Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel—the two Minnesota quarterbacks with the potential to start this week—isn’t a sizable one. But maybe, just maybe, Josh Freeman’s arrival will bring out the best in whichever one starts Sunday.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Panthers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.

Oakland at Kansas City (-9.5) (O/U-40.5) PICK: Chiefs -9.5
Kansas City doesn’t care that it is winning ugly. This team will get to 6-0 Sunday by playing it safe on offense and attacking relentlessly on defense.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.
Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Kansas City.
Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings.
Road team is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
Underdog is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

St. Louis at Houston (-9) (O/U-43) PICK: Texans -9
Unrest at the quarterback position is usually the first step in a series of events that unravel otherwise good teams. The Texans will momentarily halt that process by beating up a Rams offense that hasn’t played well against top defenses this season.

Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Cincinnati (-7.5) at Buffalo (O/U-42) PICK: Bengals -7.5
The Bengals defense suffocated Tom Brady. They’ll destroy whatever warm body the Bills are putting out there. Andy Dalton hasn’t been great, but he won’t need to be against a Bills defense that’s too inconsistent right now.

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 6.
Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 6.

Detroit (-1) at Cleveland (O/U-45) PICK: Lions -1
Even though Detroit isn’t the greatest road team in the NFL, it should have no problem hurrying and hitting Brandon Weeden. The Lions defensive line will set the tone and lead this team to victory.

Over is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games in Week 6.
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Browns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

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Sunday, October 13@4:05 PM ET
Tennessee at Seattle (-13.5) (O/U-40.5) PICK: Seahawks -13.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks, who haven’t lost at home over the last 10 games. I see a pick-six in Fitz’s future.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Seahawks are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Titans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Titans are 2-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jacksonville at Denver (-26.5) (O/U-52.5) PICK: Broncos -26.5
Chad Henne is likely in for the injured Blaine Gabbert, and if he isn’t careful with the ball, the Broncos could realistically score 50-60 points. You’d hope some sort of pride will kick in for a team expected to lose by four touchdowns.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Broncos are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.

Sunday, October 13@4:25 PM ET
New Orleans at New England (-1) (O/U-49.5) PICK: Patriots -1
A shootout might not be in the cards with how well each defense is playing right now. Getting back Rob Gronkowski should help Tom Brady, but Drew Brees is dealing right now, and his receiving options are much harder to game-plan for than Brady’s.

Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 6.
Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.

Arizona at San Francisco (-11) (O/U-41.5) PICK: 49ers -11
Love the way the 49ers have mauled people in the run game the last two weeks, but the Cards have been stingy in the front seven this season. Colin Kaepernick will need to make more plays for the win streak to continue.

Road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Cardinals are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Sunday, October 13@8:30 PM ET
Washington at Dallas (-6) (O/U-53) PICK: Cowboys -6
Tony Romo’s recent late-game interception won’t hinder his performance in Week 6. He will put on a show versus Washington’s secondary. The Cowboys are still the best team in the NFC East.

Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas.
Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.

Monday, October 14@8:40 PM ET
Indianapolis (-1) at San Diego (O/U-50) PICK: Colts -1
Even if the Colts come out flat after a statement home win, Andrew Luck will find a way to get it done late. The guy is absolutely unshakable.

Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Colts are 8-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Colts are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 6.
Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

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