So how have NFL teams getting points at home fared so far this season leading up to Week 9 in the NFL ? Well, five or six days ago the answer to that question would have been an enthusiastic “very good”, but over the span of eight hours last weekend, the same question now produces a considerably more subdued response.
You see, heading into Week #8 home dogs were paying off at a very profitable 62.5% (on over 30 games), which is the kind of number that peaks the interest of any sports bettor.
The record had NFL handicappers chattering about it on the forums, wondering whether the trend would continue. It had bettors eyeing the five home dogs on the Week 8 schedule with a little extra attention…and then…yikes.
As the saying goes, “I guess I picked the wrong week to jump on the home dogs”, well maybe that isn’t a saying, but you get what we mean. Those NFL dogs lost their bite in a big way, as they served up a fat “0’fer”, going 0-5 ATS.
So what are bettors thinking of the home dogs this week? NFL Week 9 serves up five more of them, none more intriguing than the Super Bowl champ Indianapolis Colts . With the New England Patriots making a mockery of that whole parity thing the NFL prides itself on, it’s a little surreal, but not overly surprising that the defending champions, who are undefeated themselves, are 5.5-point underdogs in their own stadium. Still, the betting public can’t get enough of the Pats, backing them at a 85% clip.
The other home dogs this week don’t have the resume of the Indianapolis Colts , but they’re also not facing an opponent that will likely shatter every offensive record the league has.
Philadelphia hosts the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night in what is shaping up as a more lopsided betting event than the Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots . The home team Eagles are barely registering at the books, as Dallas money pours in (90%) on a Cowboy team laying 3 points on the road in a divisional battle.
The same pattern is playing out with the three other home dogs on the board, as the Jets (+ 3.5 points vs. Washington), the Bills (+1 vs. Cincinnati) and the Vikings (+7 hosting San Diego) are all being frozen out by bettors. Each of them is attracting less than 15% of the volume wagered on their respective games.
It looks like the betting public will be the ones who get hurt if these dogs get their bite back.
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