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NFL Week 11 Picks 2013

by Scott Burgess on Tuesday, November 12th, 2013

As we head into Week 11 the playoff push has officially begun. Ten teams in the NFC are .500 or better heading into mid-November, which means the stakes will be sky-high this coming weekend. Carolina and San Francisco currently hold down the conference’s two Wild Card spots, but each will be up against formidable opposition in Week 11. The Panthers host the Patriots off their BYE week and the 49ers face an uphill battle in the Big Easy. The NFC leading Seattle Seahawks have it easy in Week 11 hosting the Minnesota Vikings. Below are my predictions based on head to head, team and over/under trends along with Week 11 NFL Lines.

lynch-vs-petersonTeams with Byes: Dallas, St.Louis

Thursday, November 14@8:25 PM ET
Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee (O/U-42) PICK: Colts -3
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Tennessee.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Tennessee.
Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South.
Colts are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Sunday, November 17@1:00 PM ET
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-1) (O/U-41) PICK: Jets +1
Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Buffalo.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo.
Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Atlanta (-1) at Tampa Bay (O/U-43.5) PICK: Bucs +1
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Buccaneers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 11.

Detroit (-1) at Pittsburgh (O/U-47.5) PICK: Lions -1
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Steelers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Steelers are 1-6-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 11.

Washington at Philadelphia (-3.5) (O/U-52.5) PICK: Eagles -3.5
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

Baltimore at Chicago (-2.5) (O/U-46.5) PICK: Bears -2.5
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

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Cleveland at Cincinnati (-5.5) (O/U-42.5) PICK: Bengals -5.5
Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.
Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Oakland at Houston (-7.5) (O/u-42) PICK: Texans -7.5
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Arizona (-6.5) at Jacksonville (O/U-41) PICK: Jags +6.5
Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 home games.
Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Jaguars are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Sunday, November 17@4:05 PM ET
San Diego (-1) at Miami (O/U-45.5) PICK: Chargers -1
Under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.
Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.

Sunday, November 17@4:25 PM ET
Minnesota at Seattle (-13.5) (O/U-45.5) PICK: Seahawks -13.5
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Seahawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

San Francisco at New Orleans (-3.5) (O/U-47.5) PICK: Saints -3.5
Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
Saints are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
49ers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (-6.5) (O/U-43) PICK: Giants -6.5
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Sunday, November 17@8:30 PM ET
Kansas City at Denver (-9.5) (O/U-49.5) PICK: Broncos -9.5
Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Broncos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC West.
Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Monday, November 18@8:40 PM ET
New England at Carolina (-1) (O/U-46.5) PICK: Panthers -1
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games in Week 11.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

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