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ESPN Monday Night Football Odds Week 13

by Scott Burgess on Monday, December 2nd, 2013

One of the greatest late-season matchups in the history of Monday Night Football takes place tonight, Monday Dec 2nd, as the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks host the  9-2 New Orleans Saints. Counting games from Week 10 forward, the Saints and Seahawks have the second-best combined winning percentage (.864) for two Monday night combatants. The only Monday night matchup that topped that was the 1990 meeting between the 49ers and Giants, who were both 10-1. The Seahawks are close to unbeatable at home. Since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback last year, Seattle is 13-0 at CenturyLink Field, which is why oddsmakers have the Seahawks as -4.5 point home favorites over the Saints. The total is set at 47.5 points.

CENTURYLINKThe game is in Seattle and might be the last call for anyone to stop Seattle from grabbing home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Seahawks, with a win against the Saints, would have at least a two-game lead on every other NFC team with four games to play. They would also hold the tiebreaker over the Saints and Panthers, the only other teams in the NFC with three or fewer losses.

If there’s a team that could stop the Seahawks from getting the No. 1 seed, it might be the Saints. New Orleans is 9-2, and has been one of the few dominant teams in the league. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is capable of beating any team in any venue, especially because the Seahawks are a bit thin at defensive back due to Walter Thurmond’s suspension and an injury/upcoming suspension to Brandon Browner.

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Drew Brees has put the ball up 439 times already, with only the Lions’ Matthew Stafford (465), Broncos’ Peyton Manning (445) and Falcons’ Matt Ryan (443) throwing more passes entering Week 13. Wilson, meanwhile, is doing whatever’s needed to just win, baby. He is 13-0 at CenturyLink Field and his 21-6 record since joining the Seahawks as a third-round draft choice last year gives him the highest winning percentage (.778) of any active QB in the league. Then there’s the whole “too-small” connection and the fact that Wilson has used Brees as a role model for how to approach the game even more than how to play the game.

Without right cornerback Brandon Browner (groin injury) and backup Walter Thurmond (suspended), the Seahawks are stretching the next-man-up mantra fiber-option thin as Byron Maxwell steps in for Browner and Thurmond on the right side and Jeremy Lane takes over for Thurmond as the nickel back.

Recent Trends to Consider and NFL Points Spreads:
Over is 12-2 in Seahawks last 14 games in December.
Over is 13-3 in Seahawks last 16 games following a bye week.
Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 13.
Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Seahawks are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks
When: Monday Dec 2@8:30 PM ET
Pick: Seahawks -4.5

The Bottom Line: I see a Seattle victory, but a Saints cover in a game that cruises OVER its total. The Seahawks own one of the great home-field advantages in pro sports, and New Orleans is not the same team on the road as it is at home. We recommend you signup with Bovada to receive a 10% signup bonus heading into Week 13.

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