As everyone who pays attention to NFofootball can tell you, turnovers more often than not determine the outcome of the game. The notion is quite simple: the more opportunities a team gets to score, the greater the likelihood of them winning the game. This is all fine and dandy but to football bettors at Sportsbook.com the question remains: is there any correlation between turnover (TO) margin and whether or not a team covers? Let’s analyze:
In the AFC, the teams in the top half in TO margin, have a TO margin ranging from 0 to +17. Basically this means they have taken the ball away from their opponents more often than they gave it away. For instance, New England has forced 27 turnovers while only giving the ball away 10 times themselves for an NFL best +17 TO margin. The top eight teams in the AFC combine for a +59 TO margin and are an impressive 55-40-1 ATS constituting for a covering percentage of 58%. On the flip side, the eight AFC teams in the bottom half for TO margin combined for a TO margin of -30. These eight teams are currently a combined 37-54-4 ATS for a covering rate of 40.6%.
In the NFC the numbers are even more impressive. The top eight teams combine for a TO margin of an eye-popping +48 while the bottom eight teams combine for a TO margin of -57. Just like the AFC data, the NFC teams that have a positive TO margin cover more consistently, while the eight teams with a negative TO margin generally aren’t as kind to bettors. The teams with a positive turnover margin are 54-36-6 ATS for a covering margin of a money making 60%. The NFC teams with a negative TO margin, on the other hand, are 39-55-2 ATS for a wallet draining 41% covering rate.
After looking at these overwhelming stats and trends it is quite obvious that teams that force turnovers while taking care of the ball themselves, not only win at a greater rate but more importantly cover more consistently. With all of this to consider let’s take a quick glance on which weekend games match teams with some of the greatest TO margin discrepancies. As always, be sure to log onto Sportsbook.com and go to the “Betting Trends” section to find all of these types of stats to more accurately handicap the games.
Sportsbook.com Week 14 NFL match-ups. TO margins in parentheses
Miami (-11) @ Buffalo (+3)
With a TO difference of +14, Buffalo giving 7 points appears to have value
San Diego (+14) @ Tennessee (-3)
Hard to blame the early bettors taking San Diego in a “pick em” given the +17 TO margin in favor of the Bolts.
Indianapolis (+11) @ Baltimore (-2)
Given the +13 TO margin siding with Indy, it is easy to see why 76% of the early bettors prefer the Colts -9.5 points.
New Orleans (-7) @ Atlanta (+5)
The public is on New Orleans huge despite Atlanta having a +12 TO margin over New Orleans.
