The 2012 AFC Conference Championship game kicks-off, Sunday Jan 22nd, as the New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots have won two of their last three meetings. NFL oddsmakers have the New England Patriots as -7 point home favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, thus favored to win the 2012 AFC Conference Championship. Be sure to check the 2012 AFC Conference Championship Game Odds and make your predictions early.
Baltimore (13-4, 4-4 V) will go up against the Patriots potent offense and their defense has to be at their best on Sunday. Patriots QB Tom Brady has all the super skills when you talk about a quarterback: Accuracy, anticipation, poise. But, like any quarterback, he can be affected by pressure. If the Ravens can make him move off his spot, and don’t give him the easy step-up lane, they can hope to limit his success. Hope is the operative word. The quarterback of the defense is Ray Lewis, and while he is up in years, you have to love his ability to lead a defense in big games. Lewis brings with him Terrell Suggs, who will have to attack Tom Brady off the edge. New England attacks the middle of the field better than almost anyone, which means Lewis and his compatriots better prepare to be tested early and often. Baltimore’s secondary has found new life with a healthy Ed Reed playing free safety and corners who can lock-up man-to-man. Lardarius Webb and company will have their hands full with the Patriots’ receiving corps, but Webb, Reed, Chris Carr and Jimmy Smith are all capable of making plays on the ball.
On offense QB Joe Flacco has to improve through the air and not just rely solely on RB Ray Rice. Joe Flacco has been an inconsistent quarterback. He has a great arm, but he seems like more of a “point-and-shoot” guy and not someone who can read and breakdown a defense. Against a porous Patriots secondary, however, he could find some down-the-field throws available to him. He’ll have to hit a few to keep up with Brady. Ray Rice has proven himself to be an elite back in this league, in both the run and pass phase. He’s patient to the hole and always a threat to hit the cutback lane. He’ll be a load for the Patriots’ linebackers. Vonta Leach is like another lineman in the backfield, and he neutralizes at least one tackler for Rice on any given play.
New England (14-3, 8-1 H) offensive line was able to protect Brady for 129 snaps without a sack, which is impressive considering they have rotated between Sebastian Vollmer, Matt Light and Nate Solder at tackle. The edges will be under assault with the Ravens’ exotic blitz schemes, but having veterans like Brian Waters and fellow Pro Bowler Logan Mankins helps in picking it all up. The Patriots running game consists more of journeymen than special players, but the Patriots get the most out of each and their skill sets. BenJarvis Green-Ellis is quick to the hole and Danny Woodhead is a serviceable scat-back in the run and pass games. Rookie Stevan Ridley might possess the best all-around skills of the bunch, but his fumbling problems have relegated him to spot duty. Their receiving core is a matchup nightmare, interchanging and pairing Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker on the same side of the formation. Playing off of their talent, the Patriots bunch and stack their receivers to soften coverage and rub underneath route runners to catch and run in space. This group might also be New England’s best asset to their run game — playing the personnel chess match through Gronkowski and Hernandez together.
The strength of the Patriots’ defensive line? Meat. Lots of it. It all starts with Wilfork and Kyle Love, who are two-gap pluggers with enough athleticism to allow the Patriots to rotate their defensive fronts. However, these big linemen are going to have to stay active and move well laterally. The Ravens’ offensive line is famous for creating cutback lanes for Ray Rice — adapting the Houston Texans’ zone blocking scheme after acquiring Leach at fullback. The Patriot linebacking corps is hit-or-miss. With change along the defensive line, Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes have not been able to run free like the New England linebackers of years past. And in recent weeks, they have had alleys to attack but haven’t always pulled the trigger to come downhill. Against the zone scheme of the Ravens, these linebackers are going to have to play instinctive to stay unblocked — something they haven’t consistently done.
Recent Trends to Consider:
Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games.
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Over is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 games in January.
Over is 11-2 in Patriots last 13 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 17-4 in Patriots last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
When: Sunday, Jan 22nd, 2011 3:00 PM EST
Pick: Patriots -7
Point-Spreads recommends you check the 2012 AFC Conference Championship Game Odds before the AFC Championship game kicks-off.
The Bottom Line: If the Ravens can play smash mouth football they could pull off the upset, but I don’t think they’ll get the offense to match the Pats. NFL Point Spreads Expert Tyler Morgan turned in another successful playoff weekend, posting a 2-1 against the spread record with wins on San Francisco and New York. Morgan is now 5-2 in the postseason and his 2011-2012 NFL Picks record is an astounding 84-47-4 (64 %). Tyler’s moves put thousands of dollars into his clients hands week after week during the regular season and he is now doing the same for those individuals in the playoffs. The good news for NFL Football bettors is – TYLER MORGAN’S PICKS ARE FREE – unlike most self proclaimed experts who charge big bucks to subscribers. Put a few Morgan Silver Dollars in your bank account during the 2012 NFL Playoffs by getting Tyler’s winning plays for FREE. Feel free to sign up to get NFL Picks Free!
