The 2012 NFC Conference Championship game kicks-off, Sunday Jan 22nd@6:30, as the San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants. The 49ers won their only meeting of this season 27-20, at home, in Week 10. NFL oddsmakers have the San Francisco 49ers as -2.5 point home favorites over the New York Giants, thus favored to win the 2012 NFC Conference Championship. Be sure to check the 2012 NFC Conference Championship Game Odds and make your predictions early.
New York (11-7, 6-3 V) ranks fifth in pass plays of 20-plus yards with 67 (the Patriots are first with 72). Manning has been making every throw, whether facing pressure or in tight windows, something he must continue Sunday. QB Eli Manning might be having his best season has a pro. His turnovers are down and explosive plays are up. At 89 yards per game, the Giants rush offense ranks last in the league. But this game will be won or lost through the air, and Ahmad Bradshaw has to be accounted for in the short passing game. He’s a terror in space. Brandon Jacobs, on the other hand, needs room to roll north and south — space that the 49ers defense refused to surrender, giving up 3.1 yards per carry in New York’s Week 10 loss. Manning has taken his game to another level this year with the help of an explosive set of pass-catchers. Hakeem Nicks is a physically imposing player, while Victor Cruz is quick in and out of his breaks and is practically a running back after the catch. This Giants receiving core is fundamentally sound and understands the nuances of the position better than any other group we’ve seen on film.
On defense their line is full of pass rushers who can win one-on-one matchups across the board. And on passing downs, Perry Fewell will throw four dynamic pass rushers (Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Dave Tollefson or Mathias Kiwanuka) onto the field at once. That’s a load for any offensive line, which is why the Giants have 17 sacks in their last four games. The Giants’ secondary smothered the Packers last week, employing an effective Cover 3 scheme to take the seams away from Aaron Rodgers and company. This week, they will face less of a challenge in the 49ers’ pass offense, but safeties Grant and Antrel Rolle will have to remain disciplined, because Harbaugh is known to draw up some kind of trick play on crucial downs.
San Francisco (14-3, 8-1 H) is brimming with confidence thanks to the relationship between QB Alex Smith and Coach Jim Harbaugh. With Jim Harbaugh in his ear, Alex Smith has been efficient for the 49ers. He hasn’t been consistently asked to stretch defenses with his arm (only 41 plays of 20-plus yards) but he makes smart decisions and throws with great anticipation. The 49ers are third-best versus the blitz (96.75 rating), but Smith will face blitz-like pressure versus only a four-man rush for the Giants, which will make those windows smaller. RB’s Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter drive a power run offense that carries the ball on 55.5 percent of San Francisco’s first downs. This duo also heads the most efficient ground game remaining in the playoffs, picking up four or more yards on 46 percent of those attempts. If they can remain efficient versus the Giants, they will lighten the load for Smith on second and third down. Their receiving core with Michael Crabtree and Kyle Williams are tasked with short to intermediate routes. But their big-play threat is TE Vernon Davis, who is a tough matchup for linebackers and safeties. When they win, the 49ers find him open (60 catches), in their losses, they don’t (seven catches in three losses).
On defense Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are the best inside linebacker duo in the league, and with Aldon Smith’s rush and Ahmad Brooks’ athleticism, the 49ers are loaded at LB. All the way down to Larry Grant, who stepped in for an injured Willis at the end of the season, the Niners LBs are disciplined gap-fillers and have played in sync with their defensive line all season. The 49ers defense is physical, all the way down to their defensive backs. They will man up on the back end with Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown at corner, and safeties Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner rally to the ball fiercely. And when they attack, they want the ball. San Francisco has 75 plays of less than one yard after catch this season (second-most in the NFL) and lead the NFL in turnovers.
Recent Trends to Consider:
Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Giants are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
4 9ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
49ers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games as a home favorite.
New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers
When: Sunday, Jan 22nd, 2011 6:30 PM EST
Pick: 49ers -2.5
Point-Spreads recommends you check the 2012 AFC Conference Championship Game Odds before the AFC Championship game kicks-off.
The Bottom Line: I want the Niners to win, but the Giants won on the road against the best in football and their full of confidence. It’s going to come down to a final field goal and the Niners have the best. NFL Point Spreads Expert Tyler Morgan turned in another successful playoff weekend, posting a 2-1 against the spread record with wins on San Francisco and New York. Morgan is now 5-2 in the postseason and his 2011-2012 NFL Picks record is an astounding 84-47-4 (64 %). Tyler’s moves put thousands of dollars into his clients hands week after week during the regular season and he is now doing the same for those individuals in the playoffs. The good news for NFL Football bettors is – TYLER MORGAN’S PICKS ARE FREE – unlike most self proclaimed experts who charge big bucks to subscribers. Put a few Morgan Silver Dollars in your bank account during the 2012 NFL Playoffs by getting Tyler’s winning plays for FREE. Feel free to sign up to get NFL Picks Free!
