Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will be the biggest game in Colt’s quarterback Peyton Manning’s nine years in the NFL. Long after Manning’s retirement, will the Hall of Fame quarterback (and he will) be known as the greatest player to never win the “Big Game?” Will he be the guy who could never “shake the monkey?”
While the Patriots seem to have Manning and the Colts’ number in the playoffs (AFC winners 2003-04) the problem might be the AFC Championship game itself rather than the team the Colts are playing.
In 2006, the ESPN Classic show ''The Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame,'' had an episode on Manning's purported inability to win big games.
Following the Colts' 2006 playoff loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers , Manning drew criticism for post-game statements that seemed to shift the blame to his offensive line. Manning stated that, "I'm trying to be a good teammate here; let's just say we had some problems with protection." Manning was sacked five times in that game.
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Manning's big game losses date back to his college days at Tennessee. As a starter, Manning had a 0-3 record against the University of Florida. A common misconception is that he was 0-4; however, he came off the bench as a freshman, so the 1994 loss was not 'his', as he was not the starting quarterback.
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"Big game" criticism has come from examples such as Manning's first start against Florida in 1995, in which the Tennessee defense gave up 62 while Manning and the rest of the offense put 37 points on the board. In 1996, another high scoring affair ended in Florida's favor, 35-29. Manning's Tennessee team was defeated by Nebraska 42-17 in the 1998 Orange Bowl. However, Manning and Tennessee did also win three other bowl games: the Gator Bowl in 1994 and two Citrus Bowls in 1995 and 1996.
In the 2002 postseason, facing a higher-seeded 9-7 Jets team on the road, Manning threw two interceptions and had a career low 31.2 passer rating. The next year, he faced New England in the 2003 AFC Championship Game and threw four interceptions with a passer rating of 35.5. A year later, he faced the Patriots again, and the Colts scored three offensive points.
So here he is again, needing a win in the AFC Championship game to get to the Super Bowl. Will Manning get it on Sunday or will he continue his career into 2007 carrying the monkey?
The Colts are favored by a -3.0-point chalk over the Patriots on and the betting trend currently shows public money is on the Colts at a 69% rate. If you like to fade the public, this game should be it. This is where Manning and the Colts have a very high choke threshold. History speaks for itself.
