The Miami Dolphins head into New England to take on the Patriots, Saturday Dec 24th, who won another AFC East title and are trying to clinch the AFC’s first seed. NFL oddsmakers have the Patriots as -9.5 point home favorites over the Dolphins with the over/under set at 48.5 points. Be sure to get the latest Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Spreads before making your 2011 NFL Picks Week 16.
Miami (5-9, 2-5 V) got a 30-23 win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday that made interim head coach Todd Bowles’ debut a success. Reggie Bush sealed the win with a 76-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Bush had a career-best 203 yards rushing. Matt Moore threw two touchdowns passes, and Vontae Davis had two of Miami’s three interceptions in Bowles’ first game since Tony Sparano was fired on Monday. Miami has won five of seven.
WR Brandon Marshall has come to life with Matt Moore under center, while Rob Gronkowski should add to his record tight end TD total here. Reggie Bush should be able to move the chains against the Pats weak defense, but can they keep up with the Pats offense. After a slow start that mirrored the 0-7 funk that ruined the Dolphins’ season, Bush has turned it on, rushing for 100 yards or more in the past three weeks. He ran for a career-high 201 yards against the Bills and is now just 27 yards shy of his first 1,000 yard rushing campaign.
New England (11-3, 5-1 H) shut down Tim Tebow and clinched a playoff berth with a 41-23 victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Patriots won their sixth consecutive game and another AFC East title by bouncing back from an early 17-6 deficit and an awful first quarter in which they were outgained on the ground 167 yards to 4. QB Tom Brady was 23 of 34, including his first scoring toss to Chad Ochocinco. His touchdown run was his first of the year.
The loss of DE Andre Carter could be huge for the Pats, both for his impact as a pass rusher and against the run. Expect teams to challenge Mark Anderson there, and Reggie Bush is having a career year. Playing primarily at end in a newly installed 4-3 scheme, Carter provided the Patriots with a team-high 10 sacks. Without him, it’s possible the club could return to more of the 3-4 arrangement it has used in past years. “We used them both at different times for different reasons,” Belichick said. “In the end, it comes back to the players – beating blocks, making tackles, hitting the quarterback, covering the receivers.”Despite its stellar record, Bill Belichick’s team hardly seems like a safe bet to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since its bid for a perfect season was spoiled there four years ago. The Tom Brady-led offense is typically potent, having averaged 35.8 points during the club’s six-game winning streak. New England’s defense, though, has allowed more yards than any other team’s, and the season-ending quadriceps injury Carter suffered last week in Denver certainly won’t help.
Recent Trends to Consider:
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 16.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC East.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
When: Saturday, Dec 24th, 2011 1:00 EST
Pick: New England -9.5
Point-Spreads recommends you check the Dolphins vs Patriots Spreads before the game kicks-off.
The Bottom Line: the big question is will they play all their starters, if they get the early lead. I think they’ll play for the home field advantage. NFL Point Spreads Expert Tyler Morgan went 2-1 ATS in Week 15, winning on underdogs Kansas City and Carolina to bring his NFL Predictions record to 73-39-4 for the season. Morgan, whose 2011 NFL Picks are hitting at 65% against the spread. Tyler’s moves have put thousands of dollars into his clients hands week after week. The good news for NFL Football bettors is – TYLER MORGAN’S PICKS ARE FREE – unlike most self proclaimed experts who charge big bucks to subscribers. Put a few Morgan Silver Dollars in your bank account by getting Tyler’s winning plays for FREE. Feel free to sign up to get NFL Picks Free!
