If you're a recreational bettor, than this NFL handicapping tips article will probably not provide interesting information to you, however, if you bet on sports with the primary goal of making money, then do read on.
There are two ways you can do your handicapping for the NFL match-ups you want to wager on:
1.) Do the handicapping yourself.
2.) Rely on free picks or buy some paid ones from a site offering them.
Free picks are not exactly a viable option for you to consider. Think about it like this, why would anyone give you anything for free, let alone something that you could potentially make money off of? While the concept itself sounds nice, it's just not going to happen. Paid-for picks come with the same problem. They're said to be very reliable, hence the fee, but still, why would someone sell you something for a relatively small amount of money if he could turn that piece of information into a much bigger benefit for himself?
One answer would be that he doesn't believe in the picks he gives out, or that by selling them to thousands of bettors, he'll eventually end up making more money than he would if he played it himself. Anyway, it still seems to me like the best choice you have here is to take matters into your own hands. That way, if you fail, at least you won't have anyone to blame the failure on. If you do not have the time to make NFL expert picks on your own, checkout a sports handicapping monitor, service like OnlineSportsHandicapping.com that documents the records of several sports handicappers.
Now then, when doing your own NFL handicapping, what you'll do is go up against some of the best handicappers out there, whole teams of these guys actually, and try to beat them at their own game.
I don't know about you, but I don't like the odds on that, at least not if you don't employ a few clever tricks, that is.
First thing's first: you have to understand what the bookmakers at places like Bodog.com, SportsBetting.com or SBG Global are after. The basic thing they need to achieve is to balance both sides of a matchup, so that at the end of the day, they can pay all winners with what the losers lost and keep the vig for themselves. Even with the immense logistical resources some of these bookmakers may possess, this feat is easier said than done.
Whenever a favorite plays away, people tend to give it too much credit. Statistically, home underdogs are generally doing pretty well SU, and quite excellent ATS. Most sports bettors ignore this, so they bet on the favorite. The bookie needs to adjust his lines to compensate for the influx of bettors flowing in. While doing so, he will leave uncovered value on the other side. It's not that he doesn't know about it (that is why sometimes the bookie himself decides to go up against the crowd) but he's forced to leave value there by the crowd pressure.
That's one way to find hidden value. The other way would be by paying a lot of attention to unpopular games. A bookie will find that it's more in his interest to focus his resources on popular games where the most money changes hands. Less popular games will be less focused on, and thus the possibility for hidden value popping up here and there is always present.
Another way to secure an edge over the bookmaker is by reverse handicapping. A handicapper using this method, will take the Las Vegas lines into consideration, and he'll dissect the reasons that led expert handicappers to shape those lines that way.
This method will lead a sharp bettor on to the hidden value faster than the regular way to handicap games.
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