There’s four teams left in the AFC Conference, New England, Baltimore, Houston and Denver. Let’s have a look at who could upset the favorite. NFL oddsmakers have the New England Patriots listed as 5/8 odds favorites to win the 2012 AFC Conference Championship. Get your 2012 AFC Conference Predictions in before the AFC Divisional round kicks-off.
Odds to win 2012 AFC Conference Championship:
New England Patriots 5/8
Baltimore Ravens 2/1
Houston Texans 9/1
Denver Broncos 18/1
New England has to beat Denver, at home, before the AFC Conference final. The Patriots offense is ranked 2nd overall (428ypg), with a 2nd ranked pass game (318ypg) and a 20th ranked running game (110ypg). They average the 3rd most points per-game (32.1ppg). They go up against the Broncos 20th ranked defense (357ypg), their 18th ranked pass rush (231ypg) and 22nd ranked rush defense (126ypg). The Niners allow the 24th most points per-game (24.4ppg).
The Niners offense is ranked 23rd overall (316ypg), with a 31st ranked pass game (152ypg) and a 1st ranked running game (164ypg). They average the 25th most points per-game (19.3ppg). They go up against the Patriots 31st ranked defense (411ypg), their 31st ranked pass rush (293ypg) and 17th ranked rush defense (117ypg). The Patriots allow the 15th least amount of points per-game (21.4ppg).
Baltimore has to get past Houston, at home, to make the AFC Conference final. The Ravens offense is ranked 15th overall (338ypg), with a 19th ranked pass game (213ypg) and a 10th ranked running game (124ypg). They average the 12th most points per-game (23.6ppg). They go up against the Texans 2nd ranked defense (285ypg), their 3rd ranked pass rush (189ypg) and 4th ranked rush defense (96ypg). The Texans allow the 4th least amount of points per-game (17.4ppg).
The Texans offense is ranked 13th overall (372ypg), with a 18th ranked pass game (219ypg) and an 2nd ranked running game (153ypg). They average the 10th most points per-game (23.8ppg). They go up against the Ravens 3rd ranked defense (288ypg), their 4th ranked pass rush (196ypg) and 2nd ranked rush defense (92ypg). The Ravens allow the 3rd least amount of points per-game (16.6ppg).
Team Summaries:
The Texans will be underdogs, but history is actually on their side. The Texans are one of six teams to join the NFL since the merger with the AFL in 1970. All six won their postseason debut, and the previous five (Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Seattle) all went on to reach the championship game in their respective conference. The Ravens won the Super Bowl after the 2000 season.
For the Ravens home field advantage will definitely help to further swing the game in the their favor. We have seen the Ravens falter at times this year, most notably against the Chargers where the defense was almost non-existent. We don’t expect Yates to play like Rivers did in that game, however, especially because the Ravens can get after the quarterback as well as just about anyone remaining in the playoffs.
Everybody made the mistake of counting the Broncos out last week, but the Patriots, with a week off to get healthy and perhaps some extra time to prepare for the Broncos unique offense will produce a similar result to their regular season matchup. We think that the Patriots offense will be able to overcome any defensive shortcomings and outscore the Broncos handily. Against the Broncos three weeks ago, Tom Brady threw for 320 yards and two TDs, and tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski combined for 13 catches and 182 yards. They won’t get past the Patriots.
Stopping the Patriots offense will be a much tougher task than stopping the Steelers, who were pretty banged up. The last matchup between these two teams was pretty close in the first half, with Denver actually leading for a decent portion of the first couple quarters, but some turnovers and sacks on Tebow turned the tide of the game and the Patriots offense didn’t skip a beat in putting a solid beating on Denver. This time has the potential to be different, especially with Tebow’s recent success in the passing game and if the Broncos continue to play solid defense.
Point-Spreads recommends you check the AFC Conference Spreads before the game kicks-off.
The Bottom Line: The Pats and Houston. Denver doesn’t have the offense to match the Pats, while Houston has offense and Flacco struggles to throw the ball. NFL Point Spreads Expert Tyler Morgan went 4-0 ATS in the Wild Card weekend, winning on underdogs Steelers vs Broncos to bring his NFL Predictions record to 73-39-4 for the season. Morgan, whose 2011 NFL Picks are hitting at 65% against the spread. Tyler’s moves have put thousands of dollars into his clients hands week after week. The good news for NFL Football bettors is – TYLER MORGAN’S PICKS ARE FREE – unlike most self proclaimed experts who charge big bucks to subscribers. Put a few Morgan Silver Dollars in your bank account by getting Tyler’s winning plays for FREE. Feel free to sign up to get NFL Picks Free!
