It’s US Open week (June 14-17) and to the surprise of few, the predicted winners are limited to the usual suspects when the event tees off at Oakmont Country Club near Philadelphia on Thursday. Tiger Woods has been installed by oddsmakers at Bodog.com as a 3/1 odds favorite while Phil Mickelson is a solid choice at 8/1. VJ Singh can be counted in the mix at 16/1 odds. After Woods, Mickelson and Singh, the odds aren’t so kind. That is where a good handicapper can make some money. Isolating the player who has the potential and poise to pull an upset as Geoff Ogilvy did in 2006.
(photo caption: Geoff Ogilvy with 2006 U.S. Open trophy afterstunning upset of Phil Mickelson)
Woods, currently the world’s top-player , will be gunning for his fourth PGA win of 2007 and his 13th major including two US Open championships. While all eyes are on the top-three contenders, US Open Championships, more often than not, do not go to the favorites. In the previous five years, only once, 2002, did a favorite win the event that being Tiger Woods.
Australian Geoff Ogilvy (33/1) won the cup at Winged Foot in 2006 by overtaking Mickelson on the final three holes. Ogilvy finished his round with a champion’s flourish making improbable pars on each of the last two holes. He holed a 30-foot chip shot on at the 17, and then got up-and-down for par at the 18th, dropping a downhill six-footer for his final stroke as all his competitors collapsed around him. Mickelson, leading by a stroke with one hole to play, chose to use a driver on the final hole of the tournament, and hit it well left of the fairway. The move, considered to be one of the major collapses by a favorite in the final holes, allowed Ogilvy to overtake the lead.
Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie (80/1) needed pars on the final hole to win, or bogeys to tie with Ogilvy, but they ruined their chances by producing double-bogey sixes to give Ogilvy a dramatic win.
New Zealander Mike Campbell (not rated) won the 2005 championship at Pinehurst by holding off Woods down the stretch, winning by two strokes.
Retief Goosen (25/1) has won the US Open twice this decade, first in 2001 and last in 2003.
American Jim Furyk (18/1) won the event in 2003 when he tied the record for the lowest 72-hole score in U.S. Open history for his first major championship.
While sportsbooks are happy to take your bets, handicapping the U.S. Open is a difficult task. One tip that can be helpful in handicapping is find out how much practice time the player spent at the venue in the days or even weeks prior to the event. Check the players’ websites for detailed schedules. Practice time for the U.S. Open is crucial for a player to find comfort with the course layout. If you can pick an underdog then lots of money can be made.
Also, its not a bad idea to make a small side bet on the field. This year the odds on a field player winning is holding at 5/1. The 2005 winner Mike Campbell came from the field group.
