You know how the rhyme goes: Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire; just in case you’re wondering where the name came from, now you know. And the three year old colt – Pants on Fire, winner of Grade-2 Louisiana Derby (March 26), at 10/1, will be running for the roses in today's Kentucky Derby, first of 2011’s Triple Crown events.
One thing setting Pants on Fire apart from the 2011 Kentucky Derby field is his jockey. Aboard for the 1 1/8 mile run will be Rosie Napravnik, who rode the colt to victory at Louisiana and looks to be the first female to win the derby. Pants on Fire, coming off at 8/1 odds today, won at Louisiana, defeating current derby favorites Nehro (9/2), and Mucho Macho Man (7/1).
In the past 72 hours, betting odds on Pants on Fire (BetUS.com) have come way down, from pre-draw 25/1, to today’s 8/1. It’s suspected he was earlier ignored by oddsmakers because no horse has won with a woman jockey. Of course the biggest reason odds fall, as in this case, is because of heavy action. The public sees a strong horse, with a good rider, and is not buying the bookmaker’s line.
I believe Pants on Fire was a steal at 25/1 on Tuesday but is risky at 8/1. Be sure and check for current Kentucky Derby Odds .
Pants on Fire, son of Jump Start, with a 92-Beyer, is owned by George and Lori Hall and trained by Kelly Breen. He has some good lineage in great-grandsire Seattle Slew.
It's my guess there is some error in today's line at BetUS.com but not sure and I won't know until I check it out further. I do not predict success today for this colt and do not think Pants on Fire is a wise bet at 8/1 Kentucky Derby Odds . Some Las Vegas books now have the colt at 30/1. Something doesn't add up.
