Great things were expected from three year old colt Soldat after four consecutive strong runs preceding this years Kentucky Derby preliminary, G1 $1-million Florida Derby. In the race, he came in a disappointing fifth; while rival Dialed-In went on to win. Soldat and Dialed-In were co-favorites at Gulfstream Park but now it's Dialed-In getting all the attention as Kentucky Derby favorite at Churchill Downs for today's race.
Soldat, with jockey Alan Garcia aboard, was impressive winning the G2 Fountain of Youth Feb. 26 running the 1 1/8 mile circle in 1.50.23 with Gourmet Dinner on his heels to show. He also performed well in the G3 Pilgrem in October and G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Nov.6. Soldat was a top 2-year-old on turf last season, winning With Anticipation at Saratoga.
Soldat is now coming off at 12-to-1 Kentucky Derby Odds and will post from Gate 17. He should have plenty of room to maneuver since Uncle Mo is a scratch originally assigned next door in Gate 18. It will be interesting to see how Nehro will pace out of 19, a horse known to procrastinate. To his left will be Animal Kingdom coming off at 30-to-1.
It's hard to tell how this horse, who really likes running on turf, will perform on a soggy Chruchill Downs dirt track. He has demonstrated the ability to run down and passs competition on the grass but has failed to demonstrate the same on dirt. His weakness could be a strength on a damp track since it's obvious he didn't like getting dirt kicked in his face in recent events. With the right conditions, Soldat has the potential to win this race and at 12/1 is worth the risk. For my Kentucky Derby Predictions I call a top-3 finish for Soldat but a win is unlikely.
