Yes, today is all about Big Brown’s Triple Crown hunt but Point-Spreads.com wants its horse betting readers to know that their are several worthy 2008 Belmont Stakes Predictions besides Big Brown. With internet racebook Sportsbook.com listing Big Brown as the heavy 1 to 3 odds favorite today at the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes, we decided to give you the expert insight of Horse Racing Betting Expert Anthony Stabile for today's big race. "A Different Kind of Bottom Line" was originally published on the VegasInsider.com on Friday June 6th, 2008. Point-Spreads.com Editor’s Note: Anthony Stabile of VegasInsider.com will be offering winning selections on the Belmont Stakes with analysis.
For those of you that thought you’d be reading the same Bottom Line format I used for both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, I apologize for changing it up on you. I promise to make it up to you if you continue reading.
Since he crossed the wire under wraps in the Preakness, I’m sure you wish you had a dollar for every time you’ve heard or read that Big Brown can’t lose the Belmont on Saturday. You’ve listened to his trainer, Rick Dutrow Jr., use words like “forgone conclusion,” when it comes to Big Brown wrapping up the Triple Crown and joining the eleven others in the pantheon of Triple Crown greats.
I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of it. And you won’t be reading any of that in this column because I’m here to tell you that Big Brown will not win this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. In fact, I think there is a good chance he’ll be off the board. Here’s why.
Bet on your 2008 Belmont Stakes Predictions at internet racebook Sportsbook.com.
The Quarter Crack – I know Dutrow and foot specialist Ian McKinley are saying there is nothing to worry about, but what are they supposed to say? Imagine how foolish it would appear if they were to say “this could really be a problem, but we’re running him anyway,” especially on the heels of the Eight Belles catastrophe in the Derby? I’m not saying the horse is in grave danger because they wouldn’t be running him if he would. At least that’s what I’d like to think. But, to say it won’t affect his performance is nonsense. And, let’s not forget that this is a new quarter crack on his other foot. The rain that fell in Louisville before the Derby and in Baltimore before the Preakness was the best thing that ever happened to Big Brown because of instead of worrying about scraping the courses down to illicit faster times on the two big days, the maintenance crews were far more concerned with getting the courses in manageable condition. That probably won’t be the case at Belmont as NYRA is notorious for jazzing these tracks up on big days.
The Pace Scenario – After getting perfect set ups in the first two jewels, Big Brown will now break from the rail and you have to assume he’ll use his speed in order to maintain his position early on. I think Desormeaux is putting him on the lead and with a horse like Da’ Tara who is seemingly in the race to insure a quick pace it could be Triple Crown suicide. I just don’t see him rating from the rail and working out a good trip if he does.
Casino Drive – Should he manage to work out a stalking trip, he won’t be the only one as the Japanese wonder horse should be placed right along side of Big Brown. It could be even worse for Big Brown should Casino Drive take the initiative and grab the early lead. Big Brown has never had to pass a horse with the ability and potential of Casino Drive. No one really knows how he’ll react.
The Distance – The 1 ½ miles of “the Test of the Champion” will likely be the most grueling race in most of these horses respective careers. Not only is Big Brown not bred particularly well to handle the distance, others in here are. Casino Drive is a half brother to the last two Belmont winners, Jazil and Rags to Riches, Tale of Ekati’s pedigree is laden with stamina, especially on the dam side and longshot Anak Nakal is sired by 1998 Belmont winner Victory Gallop who upset Real Quiet in his Triple Crown bid.
Kent J. Desormeaux – Let’s call a spade a spade – the guy cost Real Quiet the Triple Crown. It’s as simple as that. He’s been known to get overly aggressive and make knucklehead moves from time to time and who knows what he’s going to do with Big Brown once the gate opens? The answer: not even him.
Karma – Can you really talk this much smack and win? Doesn’t Dutrow know that the Racing Gods hate braggarts? I mean, I wouldn’t mind if this was all by design but if the allowance race he won in his first start this year didn’t get rained off the turf, Big Brown would be 1-5 in the Hill Prince at Belmont on Friday. Quarter cracks aside, everything has pretty much gone perfectly for these guys. In this business, that ends at some point. I think Saturday is the perfect day for it.
There is a reason 10 horses have failed in their attempts to win the Triple Crown the past 30 years – IT’S HARD!!! In my opinion, you need to have eight perfect weeks, starting three weeks before the Derby and ending when you cross the wire in the Belmont. Big Brown hasn’t and his misfortune has befallen him at the most inopportune of times. Come Saturday, Big Brown will turn into Big Frown for there’ll be no Triple Crown.
And that’s the bottom line.
Point-Spreads.com Editor’s Note: Anthony Stabile of VegasInsider.com will be offering winning selections on the Belmont Stakes with analysis.
Sportsbook.com has posted betting odds on whether Big Brown will win the Triple Crown in 2008:
Yes: -300
No: +200
Sportsbook.com has posted horse racing betting odds on all the 2008 Belmont Stakes Predictions:
Anak Nakal: 25 – 1
Big Brown: 1 – 3
Casino Drive: 5 – 2
DaTara: 25 – 1
Denis Of Cork: 10 – 1
Guadalcanal: 40 – 1
Icabad Crane: 18 – 1
Macho Again: 15 – 1
Readys Echo: 25 – 1
Tale Of Ekati: 18 – 1
