| Kentucky Derby Prediction Preview Part III |
|
|
|
| Written by Anthony Stabile | |||||||
|
Friday, 04 May 2007
|
|||||||
 Welcome to the third and final installment of our Kentucky Derby 133 preview. We’ve covered half the field in the first two installments, looking at all five of Todd Pletcher’s runners, the two from Steve Asmussen’s barn, two more that will start for trainer Doug O'Neill and the Larry Jones trained Hard Spun. Today, we’ll look at the rest.Let’s start with Teuflesburg, who was able to get into the field when O’Neill announced that Cobalt Blue would pass the Derby after an unsatisfactory work. With a remarkable 15 starts already under his belt, unheard of in this day and age for a three-year-old in May with Derby aspirations, Teuflesburg was part of that amazing four horse photo at the conclusion of the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland. The son of Johannesburg actually led the field through those pokey early fractions that resulted in the final 3/8 of a mile getting covered in less than 35 seconds. He was also responsible for shutting off Great Hunter though the stewards took no action and left him in the fourth spot. Earlier this season, Teuflesburg won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn at over 23-1. He finished his Derby preparations with a five furlong move in 1:00 4/5 this past Sunday at Churchill Downs. Stewart Elliott, who successfully guided Smarty Jones to a win in the 2004 Run for the Roses has the call. When trainer Mark Shuman announced that Xchanger, winner of the Tesio at Pimlico just 10 days ago would pass the Derby, trainer Bill Kaplan became the happiest guy at Churchill as it allowed him to get a second runner into the race in Imawildandcrazyguy. He will now join stablemate Storm in May in the gate this Saturday. After starting his season at the Fair Grounds with a second place finish in the G3 Risen Star he finished fourth in the G2 Louisiana Derby, he finished a well beaten sixth after breaking slowly in the G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream. He had been off the Derby trail before Kaplan threw his hat back into the ring last week. He last worked on Monday, going three furlongs in :36 1/5 at Churchill. A rider has yet to be named. Kaplan’s other runner Storm in May is another of the more seasoned runners in this even as the Derby will be start number 14 for this son of Tiger Ridge who hasn’t had a break since starting his career last year in Independence Day at Calder. After hitting the board in all eight starts last season, including three wins, Storm in May captured the Sunshine Millions Dash at Gulfstream at better than 26-1 and most recently finished second in the G2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. On Monday, he breezed three furlongs in :35 4/5 at Churchill and will have Juan Leyva in the boot for the Derby. One of the more noticeable trends this year in regards to the Derby is that five trainers have more than one contender in the race. We’ve covered four, which leaves us with trainer Darrin Miller who’ll saddle both Dominican and Sedgefield this Saturday. When four horses were separated by less than a half length at the end of this years’ Blue Grass, it was Dominican’s nose that hit the wire first. Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the race was that despite the dawdling pace up front, Dominican managed to rally from off the pace to win. It was a gutsy, hard fought victory that came on the heels of a much easier win in the Rushaway two starts back at Turfway. This is where it starts to get intriguing. You see, both of those wins came over Polytrack, as did his maiden win which makes him a perfect 3 for 3 over synthetic surfaces. He’s 0 for 4 on conventional dirt. Throw in the fact that he was gelded before his first start this season and it leaves you with more questions than a game of Trivial Pursuit. Last Sunday, Dominican went five furlongs in a sharp :59 2/5 at Churchill and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Sedgefield, while not as accomplished as Dominican, is no easier puzzle to solve and may in fact be a tougher nut to crack than his stablemate, especially when you consider the fact that Sedgefield has raced exclusively over Polytrack and turf and hasn’t one start on a conventional dirt track.. He’s won once over Polytrack and once on the turf in 8 career starts and most recently finished fourth as the 7-5 chalk in the G3 Transylvania, a one mile contest on the grass at Keeneland. He did work at Churchill on Monday, going a half mile in :48 2/5 and will have Julien Leparoux in the saddle. California will once again be well represented in this Derby. While Stormello used two Gulfstream preps to get ready for the Derby, he’s been stabled out at Hollywood with trainer Bill Currin all year. A three time winner last season, including a determined wire to wire score in the G1 Hollywood Futurity to close out his juvenile season, Stormello didn’t resurface until the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on March 3. On that day, Scat Daddy managed to nip him on the wire after he set the pace but four weeks later in the Florida Derby, Stormello spit the bit at the head of the lane and trudged home fourth, beaten four lengths. On Sunday, he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Hollywood and will have two time Derby winning rider Kent Desormeaux up. Bwana Bill is another Golden State invader looking to rattle some cages this Saturday. Earlier this year, this Jerry Hollendorfer runner won the California Derby at Golden Gate and the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows in similar style from off the pace before venturing out of northern California for the first time last out when fifth in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. The son of Holy Bull, sire of 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, worked six furlongs on Monday at Churchill in 1:14 2/5. Javier Castellano rides. Speaking of Giacomo, his little half-brother Tiago is the last runner to fly the California flag in this year’s renewal of the Derby. Trainer John Shirreffs decided to remove the blinkers Tiago had worn in his first three starts and switch riders to Mike Smith, hoping to revive some of the old mojo the two had with Giacomo, for the Santa Anita Derby and it worked out perfectly. Far back early on, Tiago closed well, finally getting past King of the Roxy in the final few strides to win by a half-length at 29-1. It was actually the first time in his career he crossed the line first as he was put up via disqualification in his maiden win. His final work, a six furlong drill in a brisk 1:11 2/5 ay Hollywood capped off a wonderful series of work since his upset score in the SA Derby and couldn’t be doing better. Shifting gears from one coast to the other, Belmont Park, a place that has had at least a handful of Derby hopefuls on the grounds in past seasons has played host to just one the past few weeks and his name is Nobiz Like Shobiz. Last season, ‘Nobiz’ won two of his three starts and placed second to Scat daddy in the G1 Champagne in his lone defeat. After closing out his two-year-old campaign by winning the G2 Remsen under mild urging, trainer Barclay Tagg decided on the Gulfstream route for his strapping son of Albert the Great. In his first start of the season, ‘Nobiz’ wired the field in the G3 Holy Bull, lugging in through the stretch as he did throughout his three starts as a juvenile before having those very same antics cost him dearly when third in the Fountain of Youth. Tagg decided enough was enough, began working him in blinkers and decided to race him in the “Rogue’s Badge” for the first time in the G1 Wood Memorial. With a fresh set of blinkers and cotton in his ears to further keep his mind on his business, ‘Nobiz’ was forced to race on the lead after breaking from the rail, raced a bit rank as regular rider Cornelio Velasquez tried reigning him in down the backside and battled every step of the way. After putting away Any Given Sunday in mid-stretch, he dug in and held off Sightseeing to win by a half length. Since then, he’s turned in a pair of sharp five furlong drills at Belmont with the last one coming on Sunday in :59 4/5. Last but not least, the champ is here. And if you could say that one horse in this bunch has anything that resembles a home field advantage, it would be Street Sense. Over the past few season, trainer Carl Nafzger has begun winding his stable down, turning most of his horses over to longtime assistant Ian Wilkes. But Street Sense is all his. After winning just a maiden race in the first four starts of his career, the son of Street Cry crashed the two-year-old party in a big way, sneaking up the rail under regular rider Calvin Borel before winning the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by an astonishing 10 lengths. And then, he vanished. Nafzger played his cards close to his vest all winter, even after he won the Eclipse award for Two-Year-Old. Finally, he worked at Palm Beach Downs and after a month of hemming and hawing, Nafzger that his sophomore debut would come in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, a race he won by a nose over a game Any Given Saturday. For his second and final Derby prep, Street Sense tried his hand over the Keeneland Polytrack in the Blue Grass and did his best Nobiz Like Shobiz impersonation in the stretch. Every time it seemed like he was getting to the lead and was about to get away, he lugged in, lost ground and eventually lost by a nose to Dominican in one of the strangest Derby preps in history. Since then, Nafzger has brought him home and worked him twice. The first, for those who were on hand, speak of it like they saw the second coming of the Lord while the second, a five furlong move in 1:00 3/5 signaled his readiness as he attempts to become the first horse to break the BC Juvenile/Derby jinx. Originally Published on VegasInsider.com by Anthony Stabile Curlin: +150 Adore the Gold: +3000 Any Given Saturday: +1200 Belgravia: +3000 Chelokee: +2500 Circular Quay: +700 Cowtown Cat: +2500 Drums of Thunder: +2500 Great Hunter: +2000 Hard Spun: +1200 Liquidity: +2500 Nobiz Like Shobiz: +500 Notional: +1100 Sam P.: +4500 Scat Daddy: +450 Storm in May: +8500 Stormello: +1600 Street Sense: +350 Teuflesberg: +8000 Zanjero: +1400 Cobalt Blue: +5000 Dominican: +2500 Reporting For Duty: +8500 Tiago: +750                        |
|||||||
| Last Updated ( Thursday, 03 May 2007 ) | |||||||